Revolution -109 vs Red Bulls: The Market Sees a Coin Flip
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: New England Revolution (moneyline -109)
- Market probability (margin removed): New England Revolution 49%, Draw 23%, New York Red Bulls 28%
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- New England Revolution -102 at MyBookie.agBet at MyBookie.ag →
- Draw +327 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- New York Red Bulls +240 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Draw No Bet
- New England Revolution -213 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- New York Red Bulls +160 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
New England hosts New York on Wednesday with the market calling it close. The Revolution are the favorite at -109, but the margin-removed probability sits at just 49% for New England, 23% for the draw, and 28% for the Red Bulls. That's a coin flip with a draw tax, and bettors should treat it that way.
The case for New England starts with scoring: 55.0 PPG, a number that dwarfs New York's 39.0. The Revolution have also won two of their last five, including a W in their most recent outing. That scoring gap is the biggest number on the page, and it explains why the market makes them the favorite despite the near-even price.
The case for New York is resilience. The Red Bulls have won two of their last five as well, and they're getting +240 on the moneyline, the biggest underdog price in the match. At that number, a 28% market probability means the implied odds are generous for a team that's shown it can win. The draw at +327 is also live at 23%.
On the move: New England opened around -109 and has held steady, with the best price now -102 at MyBookie.ag. The draw's best number is +327 at BetAnything, and New York's best is +240 at BetAnything. In Draw No Bet, New England is -213 at BetAnything, New York +160 at BetAnything.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no recommendation. If you have a read, the best number for it is on the board.
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Odds Comparison
DNB (Draw No Bet): a draw returns the stake. Each book's from its own prices for the team and the draw: the price of the two bets that make it there.
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Oct 27, 11:49 AM ET. Lines may have moved.
New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution: FAQ
Who is favored in New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution?+
New England Revolution: -109 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 49%.
What are the best odds for New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution?+
When this analysis was written: New England Revolution -102 at MyBookie.ag, Draw +327 at BetAnything and New York Red Bulls +240 at BetAnything on the moneyline; New England Revolution -213 at BetAnything and New York Red Bulls +160 at BetAnything on the Draw No Bet. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
Does GODDS have a pick for New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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