New England Revolution +165 vs Philadelphia Union. The worst team in MLS is being faded.

The God of Odds likes New England Revolution on the moneyline at +165, and LowVig is the place to hammer it. This is a classic fade the favorite spot against a Philadelphia Union side that looks completely lost. The Revs are 6-3 on the season, averaging 1.8 goals per game while allowing just 1.2. Meanwhile, the Union are 1-7, scoring a pathetic 0.8 per game and giving up 1.5. The form gap is even wider: New England has won six of their last ten matches, while Philadelphia has lost eight of their last ten. That's not a slump, that's a team in freefall.

Philadelphia's lone win came against... well, it doesn't matter. The point is they've been dreadful. Their last ten results: L-D-D-W-L-L-L-L-L-L. That's six straight losses entering this game. New England, by contrast, has been rolling: W-D-W-W-W-W-L-W-L-L. Even with two recent losses, they've been dominant overall. At home, the Revs are 0-0 but that's just a quirk of the schedule. They're the better team in every metric that matters.

The books are sleeping on this line. Philadelphia is the favorite? Give me a break. The Revs at +165 is a gift. LowVig has the best price at +165, a full two ticks better than Bovada's +163. Don't overthink it. Take the better team getting plus money and watch the Union continue their spiral.

Confidence: 4 out of 5. Strong play. The numbers don't lie.