St. Louis City SC and Houston Dynamo, a coin flip at +159

Houston hosts St. Louis with the market calling it dead even. The favorite is St. Louis City SC at +159, but the Godds market probability after margin removal reads Houston Dynamo 36%, Draw 28%, St. Louis City SC 36%. That's a pick'em with a draw tax. Both teams are 14-9-10 on the season, which tells you the table can't separate them either.

The case for Houston starts at home and with the short memory. They've won one in a row and their last 10 reads W-L-W-W-L-L-L-W-L-W, a side that bounces back. They score 1.3 per game and allow 1.3, so the profile is tight and low variance. The moneyline record sits at 1-2, but the home crowd and the even number give them a real argument at +167.

The case for St. Louis is the attack. They average 1.8 goals per game, the best scoring number in this matchup, and they've drawn their last match. The last 10 is ugly at L-L-L-D-D-W-L-L-L-D, but the scoring rate is the one number that travels. Their moneyline record is 2-1, and at +163 they're priced as the favorite for a reason.

The number hasn't moved much. Houston sits at +167 across BetOnline.ag and BetUS, with MyBookie.ag, Bovada and BetAnything at +165. The draw is +257 at BetOnline.ag and BetUS, shorter at +235 and +238 elsewhere. St. Louis is +163 at BetOnline.ag and BetUS, +158 and +159 at the rest. In Draw No Bet, Houston is -108 at BetOnline.ag and BetUS, St. Louis -112 at the same two books, so the market gives the away side a hair of separation.

Godds has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best moneyline prices are at BetOnline.ag on all three outcomes, and the best Draw No Bet numbers are there too.