Raptors -9.5 vs Bulls: Toronto's ATS record says this is easy money

The God of Odds likes the Toronto Raptors -9.5 at -110, and BetAnything is the place to hammer it. This is a spread bet on a team that's been covering at a 78% clip, and the market is finally catching up.

Toronto is 7-2 against the spread this season and 2-1 at home. The Raptors are scoring 122.4 points per game while allowing 116.8, and they've won three of their last five, including a 139-109 destruction of these Bulls in March. Chicago is 1-4 in its last five and just lost Nic Claxton, its best interior defender, to a doubtful tag. That's a problem against a Toronto team that's already dropped 123 and 139 on them in two of the last three meetings.

The line movement tells the story. The spread opened at -8.5 and has been bet up to -9.5 at every major book. The moneyline jumped from -350 to -410, which means sharp money is loading up on Toronto. The public sees a 3-2 Bulls team and thinks the points are free. The sharps see a Chicago team in freefall and a Toronto team that's 7-2 ATS. Guess which side I'm on.

Toronto's 48.2% field goal percentage is nearly two full points better than Chicago's 46.9%, and the Raptors have won all three recent head-to-head matchups by an average of 18 points. The Bulls are 2-2 ATS on the season, but they're 1-1 on the road and haven't faced a team this hot at home.

The total sits at 236.5 with no movement, which means the market is focused on the side. That's fine. The side is where the value is. Toronto's defense allows 116.8 per game, but Chicago's offense is about to take a hit without Claxton. The Raptors should control the paint and pull away late.

BetAnything has Toronto -9.5 at -110, which is the best price at this line. MyBookie and Everygame are also at -110, but BetOnline is charging -113. That's a 3-cent tax for the same bet. Don't pay it. Take the -110 at BetAnything and thank me when the Raptors win by 15.

This isn't a lock. It's a 3/5 confidence play, but the data is clear. Toronto is the better team, the hotter team, and the team the sharps are backing. Lay the points.