Cavaliers 112, Hornets 124: the favorite gets stunned in Charlotte

Cleveland rolls into Charlotte as a -8.5 favorite with a -340 moneyline, and the market probability after removing the margin sits at 74% Cavaliers, 26% Hornets. That's the price of a 5-5 team against a 3-7 team riding a six-game losing streak. The number hasn't moved since opening, which tells you the books are comfortable with where they stand.

The case for Charlotte starts with the only thing that's been reliable: nothing. The Hornets are 2-6 ATS, scoring 96.3 points per game while allowing 110.2, and they're missing Grant Williams, Kon Knueppel, Dennis Schroder and Brandon Miller. The best argument for the home side is that Cleveland is 1-3 on the road and has dropped its last game. Charlotte's 39.3% field goal percentage is a problem, but the Cavaliers allow 114.1 points per game, so there's room for the Hornets to score if the shots fall.

Cleveland's case is straightforward: 117.0 points per game, a 5-2 moneyline record, and a 3-1 head-to-head edge in the last four meetings. The Cavaliers cover at 43%, which isn't inspiring, but they've won three of four against Charlotte and have the healthier roster. The -8.5 is the market's way of saying the Hornets' six-game skid and four absences matter more than Cleveland's road record.

The line opened at -8.5 and hasn't budged. The total sits at 214.5, also flat. Best prices: Charlotte +280 on the moneyline at Bovada, Cleveland -330 at BetUS. On the spread, Charlotte +8.5 (-110) at BetAnything, Cleveland -8.5 (-107) at BetOnline.ag. Total 214.5: over -110 and under -110, both at BetAnything.

GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. The best number is there for whatever your read is.