Spurs -12.5 against Dallas, and the market is nearly all the way there.

San Antonio hosts Dallas on a five game win streak, and the market has made its position clear. The Spurs are -12.5 with a moneyline of -680, and with the margin removed the market probability sits at San Antonio 83%, Dallas 17%. That's the number to beat, and it's a big one.

The case for San Antonio starts with the streak and the scoring. The Spurs are 5-2, averaging 117.6 points per game while allowing 108.3, and they've won five straight. Their moneyline record is 5-1, and they beat Dallas 122-106 in the last meeting. The caveats are real: they're 3-3 against the spread, just 3-2 at home, and Tobias Harris and Jayden Quaintance are out or doubtful.

The case for Dallas is the cover rate and the road form. The Mavericks are 4-3 and 2-1 away, and they've covered in 3 of 5 games (60%). They score 112.3 and allow 112.3, and they shoot 48.3% from the field, better than San Antonio's 46.5%. The problem is bodies: Dereck Lively II, Santi Aldama, Tarik Biberovic and Sergio de Larrea are all out or doubtful.

The number hasn't budged. The spread opened at -12.5 and sits at -12.5. The total moved from 228.5 to 227.5, toward the under. Best prices: moneyline, Spurs -589 at MyBookie.ag and Mavericks +525 at Bovada. Spread, -12.5 (-110) at Bovada and +12.5 (-110) at Bovada. Total 227.5, over -110 and under -110, both at Bovada. BetOnline.ag hangs 227.

GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's nothing to endorse. Whatever your read, the best number is on the board above.