Toyota Center (Houston), Houston, TX
Nuggets 100, Rockets 110: Houston covers -4.5 and the under hits
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Houston Rockets -4.5 (moneyline -174)
- Market probability (margin removed): Houston Rockets 61%, Denver Nuggets 39%
- Line since opening: Houston Rockets -4.5 → -4.5 · Total 222.5 → 223.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Houston Rockets -170 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Denver Nuggets +160 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
Spread
- Houston Rockets -4.5 (-105) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Denver Nuggets +4.5 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Total 223.5
- Over -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Under -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Final: Denver Nuggets 100, Houston Rockets 110
Against the closing line: Houston Rockets won and covered -4.5 · Total 210, under 223.5
Game Recap
Denver Nuggets 100, Houston Rockets 110. Houston did what a 7-3 team at home is supposed to do: protect the floor and put away a Western Conference opponent. The Rockets came in scoring 116.0 a night and allowing 107.0, and they held Denver to 100, a number that never let the Nuggets turn this into a track meet. The market made Houston a -4.5 favorite and -174 on the moneyline, a 61% chance, and the Rockets played like the side that deserved it. Against the numbers, the favorite won outright and covered -4.5, and the total of 210 went under 223.5. The closing line moved to Houston -4.5 and -177, but the result was never in doubt.
Pre-Game Analysis
Houston hosts Denver with the Rockets priced as a -4.5 favorite and -174 on the moneyline. Strip out the margin and the market gives Houston a 61% chance, Denver 39%. That's a real number, not a coin flip, and it's the one bettors have to argue with.
The case for Houston starts with the record. The Rockets are 7-3, 4-1 at home, and they've covered in 5 of 8 games, a 63% clip. They score 116.0 a night and allow 107.0, and they've won five of their last ten. The catch is up front: Oscar Tshiebwe, Clint Capela and Steven Adams are all out or doubtful, three centers off the board. Houston's depth gets tested against one of the league's toughest frontcourts.
Denver's argument is timing. The Nuggets are 5-3, riding a 2-game win streak, and they've won 3 of the last 4 meetings in this series. They score 115.3 and shoot 48.5% from the field, a tick better than Houston's 47.9%. On the road they're 2-1. The counterweight: Denver is just 3-4 against the spread, a 43% cover rate, and Julian Strawther is out or doubtful. The Nuggets have been the better bet in this matchup historically, not this season.
The number hasn't moved. Houston opened -4.5 and sits at -4.5, while the total drifted from 222.5 to 223.5, toward the over. Best price on the Rockets moneyline is -170 at BetAnything; Denver's best is +160 at Everygame. On the spread, Houston -4.5 (-105) at BetOnline.ag, Denver +4.5 (-110) at BetAnything. On the total, Over 223.5 (-110) and Under 223.5 (-110), both at BetAnything.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. Whatever your read is, take the best number on the board.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 9, 3:37 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets: FAQ
Who is favored in Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets?+
Houston Rockets: -4.5 on the spread and -174 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 61%.
What are the best odds for Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets?+
When this analysis was written: Houston Rockets -170 at BetAnything and Denver Nuggets +160 at Everygame on the moneyline; Houston Rockets -4.5 (-105) at BetOnline.ag and Denver Nuggets +4.5 (-110) at BetAnything on the spread; Over -110 at BetAnything and Under -110 at BetAnything on the total of 223.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Houston Rockets -4.5 and was -4.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 222.5 and was 223.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
Denver Nuggets 100, Houston Rockets 110.
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