Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
Spurs -12 vs Warriors, and the market isn't blinking.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: San Antonio Spurs -12 (moneyline -700)
- Market probability (margin removed): San Antonio Spurs 84%, Golden State Warriors 16%
- Line since opening: San Antonio Spurs -13 → -12 · Total 218.5 → 218
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- San Antonio Spurs -600 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Golden State Warriors +505 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Spread
- San Antonio Spurs -12 (-105) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Golden State Warriors +12 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Total 218
- Over -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Under -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
San Antonio hosts Golden State Friday night on a 10-game win streak, and the market has made its stance clear. The Spurs are -12 with an 84% moneyline probability after the vig is stripped out. Golden State gets 16%. That's the price of walking into a building where the home team hasn't lost in a month.
The case for San Antonio starts with the record: 10-2, 4-2 at home, 10-1 on the moneyline. The Spurs score 119.2 a night and give up 108.0. They've won all 10 of their last 10. The catch is the cover rate: 5-6 against the spread, 45%. They win, but they haven't been burying teams by this number. Tobias Harris and Jayden Quaintance are out or doubtful, which thins the frontcourt.
The case for Golden State is the price and the history. The Warriors are 8-4, score 119.3, and have taken two of the last four meetings, including a 125-120 win in San Antonio on Nov. 12 and a 109-108 win on Nov. 14. They're 3-3-1 ATS. The problem is the body count: Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody and Brandon Williams are all out or doubtful. That's the entire reason this line exists.
The number has moved. The spread opened at -13 and sits at -12. The total dropped from 218.5 to 218. The moneyline went from -950 to -700, sharp money on Golden State. Best prices: Spurs -600 at Bovada, Warriors +505 at BetOnline.ag. Spurs -12 (-105) at BetOnline.ag, Warriors +12 (-110) at BetAnything. Total 218, over and under both -110 at BetAnything.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting at the books above.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 13, 12:36 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs: FAQ
Who is favored in Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs?+
San Antonio Spurs: -12 on the spread and -700 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 84%.
What are the best odds for Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs?+
When this analysis was written: San Antonio Spurs -600 at Bovada and Golden State Warriors +505 at BetOnline.ag on the moneyline; San Antonio Spurs -12 (-105) at BetOnline.ag and Golden State Warriors +12 (-110) at BetAnything on the spread; Over -110 at BetAnything and Under -110 at BetAnything on the total of 218. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened San Antonio Spurs -13 and was -12 when this analysis was written; the total opened 218.5 and was 218.
Does GODDS have a pick for Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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