Pacers 122, Mavericks 125: the favorite wins but doesn't cover

The Pacers visit Dallas on Monday with the Mavericks priced as -4 favorites and the moneyline at -167. The market gives Dallas a 61% chance, Indiana 39%. That's a real gap, but it's not a gap that closes the door on either side. The number has been steady since opening, which tells you the market made its call early and hasn't seen a reason to move.

Dallas brings a 6-4 record and a 2-game win streak into this one, plus a 4-2 home mark. The Mavericks cover at a 71% clip (5-2-0 ATS), and they've won both recent meetings with Indiana, including a 107-105 decision on Oct 29. They score 113.9 per game and allow 109.1. The concern is upfront: Dereck Lively II is out or doubtful, along with Sergio de Larrea and Tarik Biberovic.

Indiana is 3-7 but 3-2 on the road, and the Pacers have covered 60% of their games (3-2-0 ATS). They put up 110.3 per game but give back 114.2, and they're missing Tyrese Haliburton, Johnny Furphy and Ben Sheppard. That's a lot of backcourt absent, and it shows in the scoring margin. The case for Indiana is simple: the road ATS record is real, and Dallas is short in the frontcourt.

The spread hasn't moved from -4, and the total sits at 225.5 after opening there. Best price on Dallas moneyline is -165 at BetAnything; Indiana's best is +150 at Bovada. On the spread, Dallas -4 (-110) is best at BetAnything, Indiana +4 (-105) best at Bovada. The total is 225.5, with both sides at -110 at MyBookie.ag.

GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no call to make. If you have a read, the best numbers are on the board above.