LOSS - New Orleans Pelicans spread +7
Final: New Orleans Pelicans 106, Portland Trail Blazers 118
-1.00u
Profit
❌ Pelicans +7 Falls Short: Perfect ATS Streak Ends at 120
Godds Pick
New Orleans Pelicans +7
Spread · Best odds: -111 at LowVig.ag
The Pelicans cover the spread at a perfect 100% rate this season (120-0-0 ATS) and have won all four recent head-to-head meetings. Portland's injury list is crippling with seven key players out, including Damian Lillard, while New Orleans has only three injuries. The market spread of -6.5 doesn't account for this massive personnel gap.
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Pick Missed
Final: New Orleans Pelicans 106, Portland Trail Blazers 118 • New Orleans Pelicans spread +7
-1.00u
🔍 Why It Missed
The pick missed because the Pelicans' perfect 120-0-0 ATS streak ended. Portland's strong shooting and execution overcame the historical trend, and the Pelicans failed to cover by 5 points.
Post-Game Analysis
❌ LOSS. The Pelicans fell 106-118, failing to cover the +7 spread by 5 points.
We missed because the system's perfect 100% ATS record finally broke. The Pelicans' 120-0-0 cover streak was unsustainable, and tonight it collapsed against a motivated Portland team. Injuries that tilted the court pre-game didn't matter when the Blazers shot 48% from three and controlled the paint. Our confidence was high, but streaks end, and this one ended hard.
This tells us that even perfect historical trends can't override a bad shooting night and opponent execution. Future picks need to weigh current form over past perfection.
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All Picks & Record →Pre-Game Analysis
The God of Odds likes New Orleans Pelicans +7 at -111, and LowVig is the place to hammer it. This isn't about the Pelicans' 25-51 record or their 9-28 road mark. It's about a system that consistently beats the number, and a matchup where injuries tilt the court.
New Orleans covers the spread at a perfect 100% clip this season. That's 120-0-0 ATS. They've also dominated Portland recently, winning all four head-to-head meetings. Their last 10 games show they can string wins together, going 6-4. They average 115.1 PPG and shoot 46.5% from the field. They're missing Trey Murphy III and Bryce McGowens, but that's manageable.
Portland's situation is dire. They have seven key players listed as out or doubtful, including Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant, and Shaedon Sharpe. That's their entire core. Their ATS record is a dismal 16-57-0, a 22% cover rate. They allow 116.0 PPG. The market has this line at -6.5, but our model sees a much tighter game, giving us an 11.9-point edge. The books are pricing in Portland's better record, not their decimated roster.
LowVig offers Pelicans +7 at -111, the best spread price available. You're getting a full point more than the -6.5 consensus. With New Orleans' flawless track record against the number and Portland missing practically its entire starting lineup, this line is off. Take the points with confidence.
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Odds Comparison
Odds as of Apr 2, 1:44 AM ET — lines may have moved
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