Knicks -7 in Indiana, where the market sees 71 percent.

The Knicks head to Indiana as -7 favorites, with the moneyline at -285 and the Pacers at +235. The market gives New York a 71 percent chance with the margin removed. That's a steep number for a road team, and it's built on a clear read: the Knicks are 6-5 and allowing just 103.5 points per game, while Indiana is 4-8 and giving up 114.0. The spread opened at -6.5 and moved to -7, so the money has leaned toward New York.

Indiana's best argument is its ATS record. The Pacers are 4-2-0 against the number, a 67 percent cover rate, and they've won their last game. They're scoring 111.6 points per game, and the Knicks are 3-3-0 ATS on the road. Indiana has also kept three of the last four meetings within single digits, including a 113-114 loss in December. If the Pacers keep this close, the hook at +7 matters.

New York's case starts with defense and the head-to-head. The Knicks have won 3 of the last 4 meetings, and their 103.5 points allowed is the best number in this matchup. They're 4-2 on the moneyline and 2-2 on the road. The concern is Josh Hart being out, and the Knicks are on a one-game losing streak. But the market has already priced that in by pushing the line to -7.

The total sits at 220 with no significant movement. The best prices: Pacers +7 (-105) at BetOnline.ag, Knicks -7 (-110) at Bovada. Moneyline: Pacers +235 and Knicks -285, both at Bovada. Total: Over -105 at BetOnline.ag, Under -110 at Bovada.

GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70 percent in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting for you.