Spurs -5 at Portland, and the market's number holds

The Spurs roll into Portland at 7-2 with a seven-game win streak and a 3-0 road record. The market still prices them as a moderate favorite: San Antonio -5, -200 on the moneyline, with the margin removed putting this at Portland 36%, San Antonio 64%. That's a game the market respects, not one it has settled.

Portland's case is the home floor and the price. The Trail Blazers are 6-2, scoring 121.4 points per game and allowing 112.4, and they've won five of their last six with a moneyline record of 5-1. They cover at 67% on the season (4-2 ATS), and they're getting points at home against a team that has covered just 38% of its games (3-5 ATS). Portland beat San Antonio 115-110 in January and lost by 13 in April, so the recent head-to-head is split.

San Antonio's case is the streak and the defense. The Spurs are allowing 108.7 points per game, roughly four fewer than Portland, and they haven't lost since the opening week. Their seven-game run includes three straight road wins, and they're 7-1 on the moneyline. The catch: they've been priced as a favorite all year and covered only three of eight, which is why the number sits at -5 rather than higher.

Both teams are missing guards and forwards, and the line hasn't budged: the spread opened at San Antonio -5 and sits there now, with the total steady at 229.5. Best prices: Portland +175 on the moneyline at Bovada, San Antonio -200 at BetAnything. On the spread, Portland +5 (-105) at Bovada and San Antonio -5 (-105) at BetUS. The total is 229.5, with the over and under both -110 at BetAnything.

GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches the 70% threshold in its model. Whatever your read, the best number is on the board.