Nuggets -4.5 against the Raptors, and the money is moving away.

GODDS Analysis

No pick

No GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →

The market

Favorite: Denver Nuggets -4.5 (moneyline -187)
Market probability (margin removed): Denver Nuggets 63%, Toronto Raptors 37%
Line since opening: Denver Nuggets -5.5 → -4.5 · Total 231.5 → 231

Best prices when this analysis was written

Moneyline

Denver Nuggets -180 at BetUSBet at BetUS →
Toronto Raptors +165 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →

Spread

Denver Nuggets -4.5 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Toronto Raptors +4.5 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →

Total 231

Over -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Under -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →

Denver hosts Toronto on Wednesday with the market giving the Nuggets a 63% chance to win after the margin is removed. The price is -4.5 and -187 on the moneyline. The Raptors are 4-3 and the Nuggets are 3-3, so this is a real test of whether the market's respect for Denver holds.

The Raptors make the stronger case on the numbers. They're scoring 119.1 points per game and allowing 111.4, and they've covered in 4 of 6 games this season. Their moneyline record is 4-2, and they're on a one-game win streak. Kawhi Leonard is listed as out or doubtful, but the team's scoring and cover numbers still stand out. Toronto has been the more profitable side to back so far.

Denver's argument is home court and history. The Nuggets have beaten Toronto in both recent meetings, including a 106-103 win on Dec. 31 and a 121-115 win on Mar. 20. They're scoring 113.3 and allowing 115.7, and their ATS record is just 2-4. Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther are out or doubtful. The case for Denver is that the head-to-head edge and home floor matter more than the early-season cover rate.

The line has moved toward Toronto. The spread went from -5.5 to -4.5, and the moneyline went from -230 to -187. The total sits at 231 with no significant movement. Best prices: Denver moneyline -180 at BetUS, Toronto moneyline +165 at BetAnything, spread -4.5 (-110) and +4.5 (-110) both at BetAnything, and the total 231 with over and under both at -110 at BetAnything.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting at the books above.

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Odds Comparison

Sportsbook	Raptors	Nuggets	Spread	O/U
BetOnline.ag
MyBookie.ag
Bovada
BetAnything
BetUS
Everygame
Pinnacle (sharp line) fair	+167	-167	-4.5(-102)	231.5(O+100)

Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.

Odds as of Nov 4, 12:54 PM ET. Lines may have moved.

Toronto Raptors vs Denver Nuggets: FAQ

Who is favored in Toronto Raptors vs Denver Nuggets?+

Denver Nuggets: -4.5 on the spread and -187 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 63%.

What are the best odds for Toronto Raptors vs Denver Nuggets?+

When this analysis was written: Denver Nuggets -180 at BetUS and Toronto Raptors +165 at BetAnything on the moneyline; Denver Nuggets -4.5 (-110) at BetAnything and Toronto Raptors +4.5 (-110) at BetAnything on the spread; Over -110 at BetAnything and Under -110 at BetAnything on the total of 231. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.

How has the line moved?+

The spread opened Denver Nuggets -5.5 and was -4.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 231.5 and was 231.

Does GODDS have a pick for Toronto Raptors vs Denver Nuggets?+

No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.

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