Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans 69, New Mexico Lobos 94: the favorite covers at -23
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: New Mexico Lobos -23 (moneyline -10000)
- Market probability (margin removed): New Mexico Lobos 94%, Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans 6%
- Line since opening: New Mexico Lobos -21 → -23 · Total 156.5 → 157.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- New Mexico Lobos -8000 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans +1692 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Spread
- New Mexico Lobos -23 (-115) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans +23 (-105) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Total 157.5
- Over -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Under -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Final: Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans 69, New Mexico Lobos 94
Against the closing line: New Mexico Lobos won and covered -23 · Total 163, over 157.5
Game Recap
New Mexico Lobos 94, Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans 69. The Lobos did exactly what the market expected, and then some. New Mexico came in scoring 97 points a game and allowing 62.5, a 34.5-point average margin, and they delivered another blowout. The offense kept rolling and the defense smothered Little Rock, turning a -23 spread into a comfortable cover. The Trojans never found an answer. Against the numbers, New Mexico won outright and covered -23, and the total of 163 sailed over 157.5. The market had this one pegged, and the Lobos made sure there was no doubt.
Pre-Game Analysis
New Mexico is 2-0 and priced like a team that plans to stay that way. The Lobos are -23 at BetOnline.ag, -23.5 at Bovada, with a moneyline of -10000 at three books. The market gives them a 94% chance with the margin removed. Little Rock is 0-1 against the spread and walks into a building where the Lobos are scoring 97 points a game.
The case for New Mexico starts with that number: 97.0 points per game and 62.5 allowed. That's a 34.5-point average margin, and they're 2-1 against the spread on the season. The spread opened at -21 and moved to -23, which tells you where the money went. The Lobos don't need a perfect night to cover 23; they need the pace they've already shown.
The case for Little Rock is simpler. The Trojans are 0-1 against the spread, and they're getting 23 points. The total moved from 156.5 to 157.5, so the market expects points. If Little Rock scores, the number gets longer for New Mexico to cover. That's the argument: the spread is asking the Lobos to win by more than three touchdowns against a team that hasn't had a chance to show what it is.
The line tells the story. New Mexico went from -21 to -23, and the total went from 156.5 to 157.5. The best price on the Lobos is -23 (-115) at BetOnline.ag; the best on Little Rock is +23 (-105) at BetOnline.ag. On the moneyline, BetOnline.ag has New Mexico at -8000 and Little Rock at +1692. The total of 157.5 is -110 on both sides at Bovada.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, take the best number for it.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 10, 8:13 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans vs New Mexico Lobos: FAQ
Who is favored in Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans vs New Mexico Lobos?+
New Mexico Lobos: -23 on the spread and -10000 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 94%.
What are the best odds for Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans vs New Mexico Lobos?+
When this analysis was written: New Mexico Lobos -8000 at BetOnline.ag and Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans +1692 at BetOnline.ag on the moneyline; New Mexico Lobos -23 (-115) at BetOnline.ag and Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans +23 (-105) at BetOnline.ag on the spread; Over -110 at Bovada and Under -110 at Bovada on the total of 157.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened New Mexico Lobos -21 and was -23 when this analysis was written; the total opened 156.5 and was 157.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans vs New Mexico Lobos?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans 69, New Mexico Lobos 94.
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