Bethune-Cookman 75, San Diego St 88: the favorite wins but fails to cover -19
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: San Diego St Aztecs -18.5 (moneyline -5836)
- Market probability (margin removed): San Diego St Aztecs 93%, Bethune-Cookman Wildcats 7%
- Line since opening: San Diego St Aztecs -18.5 → -18.5 · Total 152 → 152
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- San Diego St Aztecs -5000 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
- Bethune-Cookman Wildcats +1400 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
Spread
- San Diego St Aztecs -18.5 (-110) at EverygameBet at Everygame →
- Bethune-Cookman Wildcats +18.5 (-105) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Total 152
- Over -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Under -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Final: Bethune-Cookman Wildcats 75, San Diego St Aztecs 88
Against the closing line: San Diego St Aztecs won and did not cover -19 · Total 163, over 154.5
Game Recap
San Diego St beat Bethune-Cookman 88-75. The Aztecs won the game, but the number was the story. San Diego St closed as a **-19** favorite with a **-5836** moneyline, and Bethune-Cookman made sure that price never cashed. The Wildcats scored 75 points, more than enough to keep the margin under 19. The total told a different story: **163 points** sailed over the **154.5** closing line. San Diego St got the win, but the spread and total both flipped against the closing numbers. Bethune-Cookman, 0-3 coming in, showed fight on the road and turned a lopsided matchup into a scoreboard problem for anyone who trusted the line. The Aztecs move on with the win, but the closing number was the real test, and it failed.
Pre-Game Analysis
San Diego St is 2-0 and rolling into this one as a -18.5 favorite, with the market giving the Aztecs a 93% win probability once the margin is removed. Bethune-Cookman is 0-3 and has lost four straight dating back to last season. The moneyline sits at -5836 on the favorite, so the real question for bettors is whether the number is right, not who wins.
The case for San Diego St is simple: 89.5 points per game, 72.0 allowed, a 48.7% field goal rate, and a 2-0 record with a 1-0 mark against the spread. The Aztecs have covered their only lined game and cleared their only total. They score at a high clip and defend well enough to turn this into a blowout if the shots fall early.
The case for Bethune-Cookman starts with the number. The Wildcats are 1-0 against the spread despite the losing streak, and they're scoring 69.7 per game while allowing 84.7. They've been competitive enough to cash for backers who took the points. A 42.7% shooting team needs the pace to stay slow and the free throws to fall, but the cover is the only thing that matters here.
The line hasn't moved since opening: San Diego St -18.5 and a total of 152. Best prices: Aztecs moneyline -5000 at Everygame, Wildcats +1400 at Everygame. On the spread, Aztecs -18.5 (-110) at Everygame and Wildcats +18.5 (-105) at Bovada. Total 152: over -110 at Bovada, under -110 at Bovada. No significant movement means the market is settled on this number.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting for you.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 11, 12:49 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats vs San Diego St Aztecs: FAQ
Who is favored in Bethune-Cookman Wildcats vs San Diego St Aztecs?+
San Diego St Aztecs: -18.5 on the spread and -5836 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 93%.
What are the best odds for Bethune-Cookman Wildcats vs San Diego St Aztecs?+
When this analysis was written: San Diego St Aztecs -5000 at Everygame and Bethune-Cookman Wildcats +1400 at Everygame on the moneyline; San Diego St Aztecs -18.5 (-110) at Everygame and Bethune-Cookman Wildcats +18.5 (-105) at Bovada on the spread; Over -110 at Bovada and Under -110 at Bovada on the total of 152. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened San Diego St Aztecs -18.5 and was -18.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 152 and was 152.
Does GODDS have a pick for Bethune-Cookman Wildcats vs San Diego St Aztecs?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats 75, San Diego St Aztecs 88.
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