Braves 62, Patriots 61: the favorite falls outright
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: George Mason Patriots -12 (moneyline -850)
- Market probability (margin removed): George Mason Patriots 86%, Bradley Braves 14%
- Line since opening: George Mason Patriots -10 → -12 · Total 130 → 130.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- George Mason Patriots -800 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Bradley Braves +650 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
Spread
- George Mason Patriots -12 (-105) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Bradley Braves +12 (-110) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Total 130.5
- Over -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Under -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Final: Bradley Braves 62, George Mason Patriots 61
Against the closing line: George Mason Patriots lost and did not cover -12 · Total 123, under 130.5
Game Recap
Bradley Braves 62, George Mason Patriots 61. The Patriots entered as -12 favorites with an 86% implied win probability, but the Braves flipped the script. George Mason's defense, allowing just 57.7 points per game, couldn't hold Bradley to that average as the visitors found enough offense to pull the upset. The total of 123 stayed under the 130.5 closing line. Against the numbers: the favorite lost outright and failed to cover -12, while the total went under 130.5.
Pre-Game Analysis
George Mason hosts Bradley on Saturday as a -12 favorite, and the market has already made its stance clear. The moneyline sits at -850 on the home side, and with the margin removed, the implied probability reads George Mason 86%, Bradley 14%. That's a heavy number for a team that hasn't played a home game yet this season.
The case for George Mason starts with defense. The Patriots are 3-0 and allowing just 57.7 points per game, a number that travels. They've won three straight and shot 44.9% from the field as a team. The market's confidence isn't blind; it's pricing a team that's controlled its first three games on the scoreboard.
Bradley's argument is its own defense. The Braves are allowing 55.0 points per game, even lower than George Mason's mark, and they're coming off a win. But the offense is the question: 59.5 points per game on 36.9% shooting is a hard way to keep pace on the road. The Braves are 0-3 against the spread this season, and the number has moved away from them.
That move is the story. The spread opened at -10 and climbed to -12, a clear push toward the Patriots. The total ticked from 130 to 130.5, leaning over. Best prices: George Mason moneyline -800 at Bovada, Bradley +650 at Everygame. On the spread, George Mason -12 (-105) at Bovada, Bradley +12 (-110) at BetOnline.ag. The total is 130.5, with both sides -110 at Bovada.
GODDS has no pick here. No side clears the 70% threshold in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting for you.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 14, 11:29 AM ET. Lines may have moved.
Bradley Braves vs George Mason Patriots: FAQ
Who is favored in Bradley Braves vs George Mason Patriots?+
George Mason Patriots: -12 on the spread and -850 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 86%.
What are the best odds for Bradley Braves vs George Mason Patriots?+
When this analysis was written: George Mason Patriots -800 at Bovada and Bradley Braves +650 at Everygame on the moneyline; George Mason Patriots -12 (-105) at Bovada and Bradley Braves +12 (-110) at BetOnline.ag on the spread; Over -110 at Bovada and Under -110 at Bovada on the total of 130.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened George Mason Patriots -10 and was -12 when this analysis was written; the total opened 130 and was 130.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for Bradley Braves vs George Mason Patriots?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
Bradley Braves 62, George Mason Patriots 61.
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