Buffalo gets 2 at Marshall, and the line is already sliding.

Buffalo and Marshall open the season with a number that's already moving. Marshall is the favorite at -2, priced at -125 on the moneyline, but the market gives the Herd just 53% with the margin removed. That's a coin flip dressed up as a home edge. For a Week 1 game with no record to lean on, the line itself is the story.

Marshall's case starts at home and with a 46.9% field goal rate in the data. The Herd are 0-1 against the number in their own database, but they're the side the market installed as the favorite, and the number hasn't flipped. The Herd get the home floor, the shorter line and the moneyline price that says the market still sees them ahead.

Buffalo's case is the trend. The Bulls are 1-0 against the spread in their database and shoot 47.3% from the field, a hair better than Marshall's mark. They've lost their last two outright, but they're getting points and the number has moved their way since opening. When a spread shrinks from -3 to -2, the underdog money is talking.

The total sits at 157 and hasn't budged. The best moneyline prices are both at Bovada: Marshall -125, Buffalo +105. On the spread, BetOnline.ag has Marshall -2 (-115) and Buffalo +2 (-105). For the total at 157, the over and under both sit at -110 at BetOnline.ag.

GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no call to make. If you have a read, the best number is waiting: Buffalo +2 (-105) at BetOnline.ag, or Marshall -2 (-115) if you see it the other way.