Idaho -1.5 against Cal Poly, and the line keeps climbing.

Idaho hosts Cal Poly Friday with the market split nearly down the middle. The Vandals are favored at -1.5 and -122 on the moneyline, and the market probability after removing the margin is Idaho 53%, Cal Poly 47%. That's a coin flip with a lean, not a gap. The total sits at 168 after opening at 165, so the market expects points.

Idaho's case is simple: the Vandals score 90.7 points per game and allow 67.7, a plus-23 margin through three games. They've won two of three, including a W-L-W run, and they shoot 49.0% from the field. In the last meeting, Idaho beat Cal Poly 83-80 back on Dec. 21. The offense has been the constant.

Cal Poly's case is less about what's gone right and more about what's fixable. The Mustangs are 1-2, riding a two-game losing streak, scoring 77.7 and allowing 88.3. They shoot 43.5% from the field, nearly six points below Idaho. But they've played three games, all away from home, and this is their first true road test. The Mustangs lost the last meeting by three, and a one-possession game is exactly what a 1.5-point spread implies.

The number moved. The spread opened at 0 and climbed to -1.5 toward Idaho. The total went from 165 to 168, toward the over. Best prices: Idaho moneyline -115 at Bovada, Cal Poly +105 at BetOnline.ag. On the spread, Idaho -1.5 (-105) at Everygame, Cal Poly +1.5 (-110) at BetOnline.ag. The total: over -110 at BetOnline.ag, under -110 at BetOnline.ag.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in its model. If you have a read, take the best number on your side and let the market sort out the rest.