East Tennessee St 63, NC State 77: the favorite wins but doesn't cover
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: NC State Wolfpack -17.5 (moneyline -2341)
- Market probability (margin removed): NC State Wolfpack 92%, East Tennessee St Buccaneers 8%
- Line since opening: NC State Wolfpack -15 → -17.5 · Total 153.5 → 152.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- NC State Wolfpack -2200 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- East Tennessee St Buccaneers +1156 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Spread
- NC State Wolfpack -17.5 (-110) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- East Tennessee St Buccaneers +17.5 (-101) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Total 152.5
- Over -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Under -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Final: East Tennessee St Buccaneers 63, NC State Wolfpack 77
Against the closing line: NC State Wolfpack won and did not cover -17.5 · Total 140, under 152.5
Game Recap
East Tennessee St Buccaneers 63, NC State Wolfpack 77. The Wolfpack won outright, but the story was the number. NC State closed as a 17.5-point favorite, and the Buccaneers kept it within 14. The market pushed this line from 15 to 17.5, but East Tennessee St refused to get blown out. The total told a different story: 140 points, well under the 152.5 closing line. NC State's offense didn't hit its season average, and the Bucs did enough to keep the score respectable. Against the numbers: NC State won but didn't cover -17.5, and the total went under 152.5.
Pre-Game Analysis
NC State opened as a 15-point favorite. The market has pushed it to -17.5, and the moneyline sits at -2341 after the vig is stripped out. That's a 92% implied win probability for the Wolfpack and 8% for East Tennessee St. The number is the story here, not the winner.
The case for NC State starts with scoring margin. The Wolfpack put up 83.0 points per game and allow 64.0, and they're shooting 53.6% from the field. That's a team that finishes possessions efficiently and doesn't give opponents extra chances. They're 1-0 on the young season and riding a one-game win streak. The -17.5 asks them to win by three possessions against a team that's allowing 75.0 points per game. The data says they can cover that gap.
The case for East Tennessee St is simpler: the number keeps growing. The Buccaneers are 0-1 and scoring 65.0 while allowing 75.0, and they're shooting 45.5% from the floor. Those aren't numbers that scare anyone. But +17.5 is a lot of points for a team that's already been written off. The ATS record is 0-1, so there's no track record either way. The argument is purely situational: the market has moved two and a half points, and the underdog is getting the best of a line that's still climbing.
The total has moved from 153.5 to 152.5, toward the under. Best prices: NC State -2200 at Bovada, East Tennessee St +1156 at BetOnline.ag. Spread: NC State -17.5 (-110) at Bovada, East Tennessee St +17.5 (-101) at BetOnline.ag. Total 152.5: over -110 and under -110, both at Bovada.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. Whatever your read is, take the best number on the board.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 6, 5:59 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
East Tennessee St Buccaneers vs NC State Wolfpack: FAQ
Who is favored in East Tennessee St Buccaneers vs NC State Wolfpack?+
NC State Wolfpack: -17.5 on the spread and -2341 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 92%.
What are the best odds for East Tennessee St Buccaneers vs NC State Wolfpack?+
When this analysis was written: NC State Wolfpack -2200 at Bovada and East Tennessee St Buccaneers +1156 at BetOnline.ag on the moneyline; NC State Wolfpack -17.5 (-110) at Bovada and East Tennessee St Buccaneers +17.5 (-101) at BetOnline.ag on the spread; Over -110 at Bovada and Under -110 at Bovada on the total of 152.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened NC State Wolfpack -15 and was -17.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 153.5 and was 152.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for East Tennessee St Buccaneers vs NC State Wolfpack?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
East Tennessee St Buccaneers 63, NC State Wolfpack 77.
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