Butler -27.5 against Fairleigh Dickinson, and the line keeps climbing.

Butler hosts Fairleigh Dickinson Wednesday night, and the market has already made its call. The Bulldogs are -27.5 with a moneyline of -10000, and the market probability with the margin removed sits at 94% Butler, 6% Fairleigh Dickinson. That's the price of admission. The question is whether the number has run too far or not far enough.

The case for Butler starts with the scoreboard. The Bulldogs are 1-0 and averaging 96.0 points per game while allowing 60.0, a 36-point scoring margin. They're shooting 47.8% from the field as a team. That's a offense that can pile up points in a hurry, and against a defense that just gave up 120, the ceiling is high. The Bulldogs also have a one-game win streak to build on.

The case for Fairleigh Dickinson is simpler: the number is enormous. The Knights are 0-1 and coming off a game where they scored 45.0 points and allowed 120.0. Their team field goal percentage is 27.9%. That's the reality. But a 27.5-point spread means the Knights can lose by four touchdowns and still cover. The bar for a backdoor cover is low, and the market has already moved from -21 to -27.5, which means the early money pushed this number hard toward Butler.

The total has moved too, from 150 to 156.5, toward the over. At BetOnline.ag the over is -115 and the under is -105. At Bovada the over is -105 and the under is -115. On the spread, Bovada has both sides at -110, the best price on the board. The moneyline is -10000 on Butler and +1400 on Fairleigh Dickinson, both at Everygame.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you're playing it, the best number is -27.5 (-110) at Bovada on either side, and the total is 156.5 with the over at -105 at Bovada and the under at -105 at BetOnline.ag. Make your own call.