Gators -9 at Florida State, and the market's number keeps shrinking
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Florida Gators -9 (moneyline -550)
- Market probability (margin removed): Florida St Seminoles 19%, Florida Gators 81%
- Line since opening: Florida Gators -10 → -9 · Total 165 → 165.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Florida St Seminoles +390 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Florida Gators -550 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Spread
- Florida St Seminoles +9 (-110) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Florida Gators -9 (-110) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Total 165.5
- Over -110 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Under -110 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Florida and Florida State meet Tuesday with both teams at 2-0, and the market has made its call: Florida is the favorite at -9, with a moneyline of -550. The market probability, margin removed, sits at Florida State 19% and Florida 81%. That's the number to beat, and it's the number the market has already adjusted once.
The case for Florida State starts with scoring. The Seminoles are putting up 101.5 points per game and allowing 68.5, with a 49.6% field goal rate. They've won two straight and they're at home, where they haven't played yet this season. The spread has moved from +10 to +9, and that move is toward Florida State. The market is telling you the Seminoles are live at this number.
The case for Florida is defense and form. The Gators are allowing 62.0 points per game while scoring 82.5, and they're 5-0 in their last five games. They're 2-0 on the moneyline and 1-1 against the spread. They beat Florida State 78-76 in the last meeting. The Gators have the better defensive profile and the head-to-head win.
The total opened at 165 and sits at 165.5, with the move toward the over. Best prices: Florida State +9 (-110) at BetOnline.ag, Florida -9 (-110) at BetOnline.ag, Florida State +390 on the moneyline at Bovada, Florida -550 at Bovada, and the total at 165.5 with over -110 and under -110 at BetOnline.ag.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in its model. If your read is Florida State, +390 at Bovada is the best moneyline price. If it's Florida, -550 at Bovada is the shortest. The spread is -110 both ways at BetOnline.ag.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 9, 10:25 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Florida Gators vs Florida St Seminoles: FAQ
Who is favored in Florida Gators vs Florida St Seminoles?+
Florida Gators: -9 on the spread and -550 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 81%.
What are the best odds for Florida Gators vs Florida St Seminoles?+
When this analysis was written: Florida St Seminoles +390 at Bovada and Florida Gators -550 at Bovada on the moneyline; Florida St Seminoles +9 (-110) at BetOnline.ag and Florida Gators -9 (-110) at BetOnline.ag on the spread; Over -110 at BetOnline.ag and Under -110 at BetOnline.ag on the total of 165.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Florida Gators -10 and was -9 when this analysis was written; the total opened 165 and was 165.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for Florida Gators vs Florida St Seminoles?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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