Air Force -6 against Idaho State. The market sees 69%.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Air Force Falcons -6 (moneyline -250)
- Market probability (margin removed): Air Force Falcons 69%, Idaho State Bengals 31%
- Line since opening: Air Force Falcons -6 → -6 · Total 155.5 → 161.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Air Force Falcons -250 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Idaho State Bengals +211 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Spread
- Air Force Falcons -6 (-108) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Idaho State Bengals +6 (-110) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Total 161.5
- Over -110 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Under -110 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Air Force hosts Idaho State on Sunday with a 1-1 record and a chance to build on its first win. The market makes the Falcons a -6 favorite and prices them at -250 on the moneyline, an implied 69% after margin is removed. Idaho State is 0-2 and still hunting its first win. That's the backdrop. The number is tight enough that both sides have a real argument.
Air Force's case starts with scoring. The Falcons average 89.0 points per game and have won their last game. They're scoring nearly 30 more per game than Idaho State (60.0). The concern is defense: Air Force allows 80.0 per game, and its field goal percentage sits at 39.4%. The Falcons have covered just 0 of 1 against the spread this season, and their last three games read L-W-L. The win is there, but the consistency isn't yet.
Idaho State's case is simple: the line is only six, and the Bengals have nothing to lose. They're allowing 93.5 points per game and shooting 33.0% from the field, both ugly numbers. But their last four games are all losses, which means the market may be pricing them at their floor. If Air Force's defense (80.0 allowed) lets them hang around, the +6 at Bovada keeps them live. The Bengals have also hit the over in their only O/U result, same as Air Force.
The total is where the market moved. It opened at 155.5 and climbed to 161.5, a full six points toward the over. The spread hasn't budged from -6. Best prices: Air Force moneyline -250 at Bovada, Idaho State moneyline +211 at BetOnline.ag. On the spread, Air Force -6 (-108) at BetOnline.ag, Idaho State +6 (-110) at Bovada. On the total, both sides are -110 at BetOnline.ag.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no play. If you have a read, the best numbers are on the board.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 8, 2:26 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Idaho State Bengals vs Air Force Falcons: FAQ
Who is favored in Idaho State Bengals vs Air Force Falcons?+
Air Force Falcons: -6 on the spread and -250 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 69%.
What are the best odds for Idaho State Bengals vs Air Force Falcons?+
When this analysis was written: Air Force Falcons -250 at Bovada and Idaho State Bengals +211 at BetOnline.ag on the moneyline; Air Force Falcons -6 (-108) at BetOnline.ag and Idaho State Bengals +6 (-110) at Bovada on the spread; Over -110 at BetOnline.ag and Under -110 at BetOnline.ag on the total of 161.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Air Force Falcons -6 and was -6 when this analysis was written; the total opened 155.5 and was 161.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for Idaho State Bengals vs Air Force Falcons?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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