Indiana State 69, Ball State 66: the favorite falls short at -2
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Ball State Cardinals -2 (moneyline -126)
- Market probability (margin removed): Ball State Cardinals 53%, Indiana St Sycamores 47%
- Line since opening: Ball State Cardinals -4 → -2 · Total 145 → 147
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Ball State Cardinals -125 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Indiana St Sycamores +110 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
Spread
- Ball State Cardinals -2 (-105) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Indiana St Sycamores +2 (-110) at EverygameBet at Everygame →
Total 147
- Over -110 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
- Under -110 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
Final: Indiana St Sycamores 69, Ball State Cardinals 66
Against the closing line: Ball State Cardinals lost and did not cover -2 · Total 135, under 146.5
Game Recap
Indiana State 69, Ball State 66. The Sycamores walked into Muncie and handed the Cardinals a loss they won't forget. Ball State closed as a **-2** favorite with a **-126** moneyline, but the market's 53% win probability didn't hold up. The margin was tight all night, and Indiana State made the plays down the stretch to flip the script. The total closed at **146.5**, but the two teams combined for just **135**, a full 11.5 points under the number. The Cardinals couldn't cover the short spread, and the under cashed with room to spare. That's the kind of night that leaves bettors shaking their heads, especially those who backed the home favorite.
Pre-Game Analysis
Ball State hosts Indiana State as a -2 favorite, with the moneyline sitting at -126 and the market giving the Cardinals a 53% chance to win with the margin removed. Neither team has a win to its name, but the number says the market sees this as close to a coin flip. That's the whole story here: a short line, two 0-1 teams, and a total that's already on the move.
The case for Ball State starts with the venue and the matchup history, even if the head-to-head cuts the other way. The Cardinals are 0-1 and coming off a loss, but they've allowed just 67.0 points per game while scoring 55.0. The problem is the shooting: a 27.1% field goal rate is the number that jumps off the page. If that corrects at home, the -2 looks manageable. If it doesn't, the Cardinals have to win ugly.
Indiana State has its own argument. The Sycamores are scoring 70.0 points per game, and their 44.3% field goal rate is the more functional offense in this matchup. They also won the last meeting, 70-52, back on Nov 22. The counterweight is defense: 78.0 points allowed per game and an 0-1 ATS record. The Sycamores can score, but they haven't shown they can get stops.
The line tells you what bettors did with that. The spread opened at Ball State -4 and has moved to -2, a clear shift toward Indiana State. The total went the other way, from 145 to 147, so the market expects more scoring than it did at open. Best prices: Ball State moneyline -125 at Bovada, Indiana State +110 at Everygame. On the spread, Ball State -2 (-105) at Bovada, Indiana State +2 (-110) at Everygame. The total of 147 is Over -110 and Under -110, both at Everygame.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no play to hand you. Whatever your read is, the best number is on the board.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 6, 5:59 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Indiana St Sycamores vs Ball State Cardinals: FAQ
Who is favored in Indiana St Sycamores vs Ball State Cardinals?+
Ball State Cardinals: -2 on the spread and -126 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 53%.
What are the best odds for Indiana St Sycamores vs Ball State Cardinals?+
When this analysis was written: Ball State Cardinals -125 at Bovada and Indiana St Sycamores +110 at Everygame on the moneyline; Ball State Cardinals -2 (-105) at Bovada and Indiana St Sycamores +2 (-110) at Everygame on the spread; Over -110 at Everygame and Under -110 at Everygame on the total of 147. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Ball State Cardinals -4 and was -2 when this analysis was written; the total opened 145 and was 147.
Does GODDS have a pick for Indiana St Sycamores vs Ball State Cardinals?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
Indiana St Sycamores 69, Ball State Cardinals 66.
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