Southern Miss -9 against Jackson St, and the total keeps falling.

Southern Miss hosts Jackson St Wednesday as a -9 favorite, and the market gives the Golden Eagles a 78% chance with the margin removed. That's a number worth respecting, but it's not a number that ends the conversation. The moneyline sits at -435 on the market consensus, and the total has already moved from 152.5 to 149.5. Bettors are pricing this one with their eyes open.

The case for Southern Miss starts with defense. The Golden Eagles allow 59.0 points per game and held their first two opponents to a 39.8% shooting clip from the field. They've lost one straight, but this is a home game against a team that's giving up 86.3 points per game. Southern Miss doesn't need to be perfect on offense at 69.5 points per game; it needs to keep doing what it's done on the defensive end.

The case for Jackson St is simple: the Tigers have already covered in 50% of their games this season, and their 2-0 record on the over/under shows they've been in high-scoring fights. They score 62.0 points per game and shoot 37.6% from the field, which isn't pretty, but they've been competitive enough to keep the ATS record at .500. If Southern Miss's offense stalls, the Tigers can hang around.

The number hasn't moved on the spread since opening at -9, but the total has dropped three full points. The best price on the favorite is -9 (-110) at Everygame, while the best price on the underdog is +9 (-105) at Bovada. On the moneyline, Everygame offers -430 on Southern Miss and +335 on Jackson St. The total is 149.5 at Bovada, with both sides at -110.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best numbers are there for you.