Louisville -9 at Memphis, and the market isn't blinking.

Louisville walks into Memphis as a 9-point favorite and the market has made its stance clear. The Cardinals are priced at -410 on the moneyline, and with the margin removed, the implied probability sits at 77% for Louisville and 23% for Memphis. That's a heavy number for a road team in November, but the books aren't moving off it.

The case for Louisville starts with defense and efficiency. The Cardinals are 2-0 and allowing just 63.5 points per game, while scoring 95.5. They're shooting 48.9% from the field as a team. In the last meeting between these two, Louisville won 99-73. That's the data-backed argument: this team scores at a high clip and gets stops.

Memphis has its own counter. The Tigers are 2-1 and putting up 83.3 points per game, but they're allowing 89.7, which explains the 1-game losing streak. They're shooting 44.8% from the field. The strongest case for Memphis is that they've been profitable for bettors so far: 1-0 against the spread and 1-0 on the moneyline. The home crowd and a high-scoring pace could keep this closer than the number suggests.

The line hasn't budged. The spread opened at Louisville -9 and it's still -9. The total opened at 163.5 and it's still 163.5. No significant movement on either. For the best price on Memphis +9, BetOnline.ag has it at -110. For Louisville -9, BetOnline.ag also has -110. On the moneyline, Bovada has Memphis at +305 and Louisville at -410. The total is 163.5 at Bovada, with the over and under both at -110.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches the 70% threshold in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting for you.