LSU 81, Gonzaga 80: the favorite falls outright at -5
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Gonzaga Bulldogs -5 (moneyline -222)
- Market probability (margin removed): Gonzaga Bulldogs 66%, LSU Tigers 34%
- Line since opening: Gonzaga Bulldogs -6 → -5 · Total 162 → 160.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Gonzaga Bulldogs -210 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- LSU Tigers +190 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
Spread
- Gonzaga Bulldogs -5 (-115) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- LSU Tigers +5 (-105) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Total 160.5
- Over -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Under -108 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Final: LSU Tigers 81, Gonzaga Bulldogs 80
Against the closing line: Gonzaga Bulldogs lost and did not cover -5 · Total 161, over 160.5
Game Recap
LSU Tigers 81, Gonzaga Bulldogs 80. The Tigers walked into Spokane and handed the Bulldogs their first loss, a one-point gut punch that flipped the script on a Gonzaga team that closed as a 5-point favorite. LSU's defense, the one that came in allowing just 52.7 points per game, didn't smother Gonzaga, but it did just enough down the stretch. The Bulldogs had the name and the home court, but LSU had the answer. Against the numbers: Gonzaga, the favorite, lost outright and did not cover -5. The total, 161, went over 160.5. The market said 66% Gonzaga; LSU made that 34% look plenty alive.
Pre-Game Analysis
Gonzaga and LSU meet Saturday with both teams unbeaten and the market split on how much the Bulldogs' home-court name is worth. Gonzaga is the favorite at -5 with a -222 moneyline, and the market probability after removing the margin sits at 66% Gonzaga, 34% LSU. That's a number that says this is closer than the brand on the jersey suggests.
LSU's case is built on a defense that's been suffocating. The Tigers are 3-0, allowing just 52.7 points per game while scoring 94.0, and they've covered the spread in their only lined game at 1-0 ATS. Their 54.6% field goal rate is the higher of the two, and they've already shown they can handle a number with a 1-0 moneyline record. A team allowing 52.7 a night doesn't need to win pretty to stay inside five.
Gonzaga's argument is simple: the Bulldogs are 2-0 and putting up 93.5 points per game while allowing 70.0. They shoot 53.0% from the field, and their only ATS result is a 0-1 mark, which means the market has been ahead of them. But the Zags haven't played at home yet, and a neutral-court win streak of two doesn't tell you how they'll handle a live underdog with a top-tier defense.
The line has moved from -6 to -5, and the total dropped from 162 to 160.5, both toward LSU and the under. The best price on Gonzaga's moneyline is -210 at Bovada, while LSU's best is +190 at Everygame. On the spread, Gonzaga -5 (-115) and LSU +5 (-105) both sit at Bovada. For the total, Over -110 at Bovada and Under -108 at BetOnline.ag are the best available numbers.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side clears the 70% threshold in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting for you.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 14, 2:50 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
LSU Tigers vs Gonzaga Bulldogs: FAQ
Who is favored in LSU Tigers vs Gonzaga Bulldogs?+
Gonzaga Bulldogs: -5 on the spread and -222 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 66%.
What are the best odds for LSU Tigers vs Gonzaga Bulldogs?+
When this analysis was written: Gonzaga Bulldogs -210 at Bovada and LSU Tigers +190 at Everygame on the moneyline; Gonzaga Bulldogs -5 (-115) at Bovada and LSU Tigers +5 (-105) at Bovada on the spread; Over -110 at Bovada and Under -108 at BetOnline.ag on the total of 160.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Gonzaga Bulldogs -6 and was -5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 162 and was 160.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for LSU Tigers vs Gonzaga Bulldogs?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
LSU Tigers 81, Gonzaga Bulldogs 80.
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