Manhattan 68, Maine 62: the favorite falls flat at home
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Maine Black Bears -3 (moneyline -155)
- Market probability (margin removed): Maine Black Bears 58%, Manhattan Jaspers 42%
- Line since opening: Maine Black Bears -3 → -3 · Total 137 → 137
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Maine Black Bears -150 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Manhattan Jaspers +130 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Spread
- Maine Black Bears -3 (-108) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Manhattan Jaspers +3 (-110) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Total 137
- Over -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Under -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Final: Manhattan Jaspers 68, Maine Black Bears 62
Against the closing line: Maine Black Bears lost and did not cover -2 · Total 130, under 136.5
Game Recap
Manhattan Jaspers 68, Maine Black Bears 62. The market called this a coin flip with a lean, and the lean lost. Maine closed as a -2 favorite with a -134 moneyline, but the Black Bears couldn't hold home court. The preview flagged Maine's scoring margin as the case for the favorite, but the offense that averages 65.0 points never found a rhythm against Manhattan. The Jaspers controlled the pace and made the closing number look soft. Against the numbers, Maine lost outright and failed to cover -2, while the total of 130 sailed under the closing 136.5. The spread said Maine should win comfortably. The scoreboard said otherwise.
Pre-Game Analysis
Maine hosts Manhattan on Sunday with the Black Bears priced as a -3 favorite and the moneyline sitting at -155. The market gives Maine a 58% chance with the margin removed, which tells you this is a coin flip with a lean, not a mismatch. For bettors, that's the whole story: the number says the home side should win, but not comfortably.
The case for Maine starts with scoring margin. The Black Bears put up 65.0 points per game and allow 77.5, and they're on a 1-game win streak after a L-W-L stretch. Their 39.2% field goal shooting is the anchor, and at home they get the benefit of the doubt from the market. The 0-1 ATS record is a warning, but the sample is tiny.
Manhattan's argument is simpler: it's a 0-2 team with a 2-game losing streak, but it scores 62.5 and allows 78.5. The Jaspers shoot 40.7% from the field, slightly better than Maine. They've also covered just 0-1 against the spread, so neither side has proven anything at the window. The road underdog case rests on the fact that Maine hasn't separated from anyone yet.
The line hasn't moved: -3 since opening, total steady at 137. Best prices: Maine moneyline -150 at Bovada, Manhattan +130 at Bovada. On the spread, Maine -3 (-108) at BetOnline.ag, Manhattan +3 (-110) at Bovada. Total 137: over -110 at Bovada, under -110 at Bovada.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, shop the best number and make your own call.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 8, 11:35 AM ET. Lines may have moved.
Manhattan Jaspers vs Maine Black Bears: FAQ
Who is favored in Manhattan Jaspers vs Maine Black Bears?+
Maine Black Bears: -3 on the spread and -155 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 58%.
What are the best odds for Manhattan Jaspers vs Maine Black Bears?+
When this analysis was written: Maine Black Bears -150 at Bovada and Manhattan Jaspers +130 at Bovada on the moneyline; Maine Black Bears -3 (-108) at BetOnline.ag and Manhattan Jaspers +3 (-110) at Bovada on the spread; Over -110 at Bovada and Under -110 at Bovada on the total of 137. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Maine Black Bears -3 and was -3 when this analysis was written; the total opened 137 and was 137.
Does GODDS have a pick for Manhattan Jaspers vs Maine Black Bears?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
Manhattan Jaspers 68, Maine Black Bears 62.
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