Marshall 74, Ohio State 84: the favorite wins but the number doesn't
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Ohio State Buckeyes -25 (moneyline -10000)
- Market probability (margin removed): Ohio State Buckeyes 97%, Marshall Thundering Herd 3%
- Line since opening: Ohio State Buckeyes -25.5 → -25 · Total 158.5 → 162.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Ohio State Buckeyes -10000 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Marshall Thundering Herd +2800 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Spread
- Ohio State Buckeyes -25 (-110) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Marshall Thundering Herd +25 (-110) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Total 162.5
- Over -110 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Under -110 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Final: Marshall Thundering Herd 74, Ohio State Buckeyes 84
Against the closing line: Ohio State Buckeyes won and did not cover -25.5 · Total 158, under 162.5
Game Recap
Marshall Thundering Herd 74, Ohio State Buckeyes 84. The market priced Ohio State as a 25.5-point favorite, but the Herd made sure that number never had a chance. Marshall kept it within single digits for much of the night, turning a game the books had already handed to the Buckeyes into a grind. Ohio State got the win, but the margin never approached the inflated line. Against the numbers, the favorite won outright but did not cover -25.5, and the total of 158 stayed under 162.5. The close told a different story than the final score, and that's the only takeaway that matters.
Pre-Game Analysis
Ohio State hosts Marshall on Monday with the market already convinced. The Buckeyes are -25 at every book listed, with a moneyline of -10000 at Bovada. Remove the margin and the market probability reads Ohio State 97%, Marshall 3%. That's the price of admission. The question isn't who's favored, it's whether the number is right.
Ohio State's case is straightforward: 86.0 points per game and a 48.3% field goal rate. The Buckeyes have won one straight and split their last four L-W-L-W, so the form is choppy, but the scoring output is real. They haven't played at home yet this season, which adds a variable the record doesn't explain. The 0-1 ATS mark is the counterweight: they haven't covered yet.
Marshall's case is built on pace and profit. The Herd score 84.0 per game and allow 73.0, a healthier differential than Ohio State's 86.0/79.5. They're 1-0 ATS and 1-0 on the moneyline, and they've done it while alternating results W-L-W-L. The 47.4% shooting rate is within a point of the Buckeyes. Marshall has been the more reliable side against the number, even if the market doesn't respect the schedule.
The line has moved toward Marshall, from -25.5 to -25, while the total jumped from 158.5 to 162.5, a clear push toward the over. Best prices: Ohio State -25 (-110) and Marshall +25 (-110) both at Bovada; moneyline -10000 and +2800 at Bovada; total 162.5 with the over and under both -110 at BetOnline.ag.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting at the books above.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 9, 3:36 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Marshall Thundering Herd vs Ohio State Buckeyes: FAQ
Who is favored in Marshall Thundering Herd vs Ohio State Buckeyes?+
Ohio State Buckeyes: -25 on the spread and -10000 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 97%.
What are the best odds for Marshall Thundering Herd vs Ohio State Buckeyes?+
When this analysis was written: Ohio State Buckeyes -10000 at Bovada and Marshall Thundering Herd +2800 at Bovada on the moneyline; Ohio State Buckeyes -25 (-110) at Bovada and Marshall Thundering Herd +25 (-110) at Bovada on the spread; Over -110 at BetOnline.ag and Under -110 at BetOnline.ag on the total of 162.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Ohio State Buckeyes -25.5 and was -25 when this analysis was written; the total opened 158.5 and was 162.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for Marshall Thundering Herd vs Ohio State Buckeyes?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
Marshall Thundering Herd 74, Ohio State Buckeyes 84.
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