Boston College -5.5 vs UMass. The market sees a close one.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Boston College Eagles -5.5 (moneyline -245)
- Market probability (margin removed): Boston College Eagles 68%, Massachusetts Minutemen 32%
- Line since opening: Boston College Eagles -4.5 → -5.5 · Total 144 → 143.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Boston College Eagles -245 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Massachusetts Minutemen +205 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Spread
- Boston College Eagles -5.5 (-107) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Massachusetts Minutemen +5.5 (-110) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Total 143.5
- Over -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Under -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Boston College and UMass meet Friday with both teams at 1-0, and the market prices the Eagles as a -5.5 favorite with a -245 moneyline. The spread has already climbed from -4.5 to -5.5 since opening, and the total has dipped from 144 to 143.5. The market probability, with the margin removed, sits at 68% for Boston College and 32% for UMass. That's a number that says the Eagles should win, but not comfortably enough for anyone to call it a lock.
The case for Boston College starts with its defense. The Eagles are allowing just 50.0 points per game and are shooting 49.0% from the field as a team. That combination of efficient scoring and lockdown defense is why the line has moved in their favor. They also have the memory of last December's 74-76 loss to UMass fresh in their minds, a game they'll want to avenge on their home floor.
The case for UMass is simple: it's already 1-0 against the spread and 1-0 on the moneyline this season, and it's scoring 71.0 points per game while holding opponents to 60.0. The Minutemen have won three straight going back to last season, and they beat Boston College in the most recent meeting. They're shooting just 43.1% from the field, but they've found ways to win. A +5.5 spread with a +205 moneyline gives them a real path to cover or win outright.
The line movement tells the story: the spread has moved toward Boston College, but the total has moved toward the under. The best price on the Eagles' spread is -5.5 (-107) at BetOnline.ag, while the best price on the Minutemen's spread is +5.5 (-110) at Bovada. On the moneyline, Bovada offers -245 on Boston College and +205 on UMass. The total of 143.5 is -110 on both sides at Bovada.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches the 70% threshold in the model. If you have a read, the best numbers are listed above.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 6, 12:20 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Massachusetts Minutemen vs Boston College Eagles: FAQ
Who is favored in Massachusetts Minutemen vs Boston College Eagles?+
Boston College Eagles: -5.5 on the spread and -245 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 68%.
What are the best odds for Massachusetts Minutemen vs Boston College Eagles?+
When this analysis was written: Boston College Eagles -245 at Bovada and Massachusetts Minutemen +205 at Bovada on the moneyline; Boston College Eagles -5.5 (-107) at BetOnline.ag and Massachusetts Minutemen +5.5 (-110) at Bovada on the spread; Over -110 at Bovada and Under -110 at Bovada on the total of 143.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Boston College Eagles -4.5 and was -5.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 144 and was 143.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for Massachusetts Minutemen vs Boston College Eagles?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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