Troy -2.5 against UMass, and the moneyline is moving the other way.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Troy Trojans -2.5 (moneyline -140)
- Market probability (margin removed): Troy Trojans 56%, Massachusetts Minutemen 44%
- Line since opening: Troy Trojans -2.5 → -2.5 · Total 151.5 → 154.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Troy Trojans -140 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Massachusetts Minutemen +120 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Spread
- Troy Trojans -2.5 (-110) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Massachusetts Minutemen +2.5 (-110) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Total 154.5
- Over -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Under -105 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Troy opens as a -2.5 home favorite against Massachusetts, with the moneyline at -140. The market gives Troy a 56% chance with the margin removed, which leaves UMass at 44%. That's a thin gap for a home favorite, and the price has been drifting all week. This is a game where the number tells you more than the name.
The case for Troy starts with the only stat that's been settled: a 1-0 ATS record and a 44.9% field goal mark. The Trojans won their last game and they're getting the standard home bump. The spread hasn't moved off -2.5, which means the number is holding even as the moneyline shifts. If you believe the home court and the recent form carry weight, the Trojans are priced to cover a short number.
The case for UMass is the shooting. The Minutemen shot 46.9% from the field in their last game, two full points better than Troy's mark. They also won their last game. The moneyline has moved from -150 to -140 on Troy, and that move is sharp money landing on Massachusetts. When the spread holds and the moneyline drops, the underdog is getting the attention. UMass at +120 is the side the market has been buying.
The total is the loudest move on the board: 151.5 to 154.5, a full three points toward the over. That's a market telling you it expects points. For the moneyline, Troy -140 and UMass +120 are both at Bovada. The spread is Troy -2.5 (-110) and UMass +2.5 (-110) at Bovada. On the total, Over 154.5 (-110) is at Bovada and Under 154.5 (-105) is at BetOnline.ag.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no play to hand you. If you have a read, the best numbers are on the board above.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 2, 6:03 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Massachusetts Minutemen vs Troy Trojans: FAQ
Who is favored in Massachusetts Minutemen vs Troy Trojans?+
Troy Trojans: -2.5 on the spread and -140 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 56%.
What are the best odds for Massachusetts Minutemen vs Troy Trojans?+
When this analysis was written: Troy Trojans -140 at Bovada and Massachusetts Minutemen +120 at Bovada on the moneyline; Troy Trojans -2.5 (-110) at Bovada and Massachusetts Minutemen +2.5 (-110) at Bovada on the spread; Over -110 at Bovada and Under -105 at BetOnline.ag on the total of 154.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Troy Trojans -2.5 and was -2.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 151.5 and was 154.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for Massachusetts Minutemen vs Troy Trojans?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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