Memphis gets 13.5 at Iowa State. Here's what the market sees.

Memphis and Iowa State open the season with a number that demands attention: Iowa State -13.5, moneyline -1100. The market gives the Cyclones an 87% chance to win, with Memphis at 13%. That's the price of admission. The question is whether the spread tells the same story as the moneyline.

Iowa State's case starts with shooting. The Cyclones connected on 48.9% from the field in the data set, a number that separates them from Memphis's 43.4%. That gap is why the market installed them as a double-digit favorite at home. The moneyline at -1100 says the outright result is close to a formality. The spread at -13.5 is the real test.

Memphis has its own argument. The Tigers shot 43.4% from the field, and while that trails Iowa State, it's not a number that screams blowout. The market probability of 13% is the slimmest of margins, but it's not zero. Memphis gets 13.5 points, and at BetOnline.ag that price is -115. If the Tigers keep this within two touchdowns, the cover is theirs.

The line hasn't moved. Iowa State opened -13.5 and sits at -13.5. The total ticked from 155 to 155.5, a small shift toward the over. Best prices: Iowa State -13.5 at +100 (Bovada), Memphis +13.5 at -115 (BetOnline.ag). Moneyline: Iowa State -1100 and Memphis +650, both at Bovada. Total 155.5: Over -105 at Bovada, Under -110 at BetOnline.ag.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting for you.