Montana -1.5 at North Dakota, and the market's split nearly even.

Montana walks into North Dakota as the favorite, but the market's margin is thin. The Grizzlies are priced at -120 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the spread, and with the margin removed, the market gives North Dakota a 48% chance and Montana 52%. That's a coin flip with a lean, not a statement.

The case for Montana starts with defense. The Grizzlies allow 63.3 points per game, a number that would keep them in any game. They also shoot 47.16% from the field, a clear advantage over North Dakota's 39.89%. And they beat the Fighting Hawks 79-75 in the most recent meeting. If the Grizzlies dictate pace and turn this into a half-court game, the defensive edge travels.

The case for North Dakota is that it's a home dog getting points in a game the market can't separate. The Fighting Hawks score 73.3 points per game, and while they allow 89.0, that number has inflated their record, not defined it. They're 1-2 with a losing streak, same as Montana, and they get a Montana team that hasn't played a true road game yet. Home teams in this range often outperform the number.

The line has moved toward Montana. The spread opened at North Dakota -1 and is now Montana -1.5. The moneyline went from North Dakota -120 to +100, which tells you where the sharp money landed. The total dropped from 151.5 to 150.5. Best prices: North Dakota +100 at Bovada, Montana -118 at BetOnline.ag. On the spread, North Dakota +1.5 (-110) at Everygame, Montana -1.5 (-105) at Bovada. On the total, Over 150.5 (-110) at BetOnline.ag, Under 150.5 (-105) at Bovada.

GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in its model. If you have a read, the best number is out there.