Morgan St 70, UMBC 85: the favorite covers at -8
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: UMBC Retrievers -6.5 (moneyline -277)
- Market probability (margin removed): UMBC Retrievers 71%, Morgan St Bears 29%
- Line since opening: UMBC Retrievers -6.5 → -6.5 · Total 164 → 164
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- UMBC Retrievers -275 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Morgan St Bears +235 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
Spread
- UMBC Retrievers -6.5 (-110) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Morgan St Bears +6.5 (-110) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Total 164
- Over -105 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Under -110 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
Final: Morgan St Bears 70, UMBC Retrievers 85
Against the closing line: UMBC Retrievers won and covered -8 · Total 155, under 159.5
Game Recap
Morgan St Bears 70, UMBC Retrievers 85. The Bears came in 3-0, scoring 90.3 points per game, but UMBC's defense clamped down and held them to 70. The Retrievers, favored by 6.5, controlled the game from the start and covered with room to spare. Morgan St's high-powered offense never found its rhythm against a UMBC squad that was priced at -277 on the moneyline. The market gave UMBC a 71% chance, and they delivered. Against the numbers: UMBC, the favorite, won outright and covered -8; the total of 155 went under 159.5. The books made their call, and the Retrievers answered.
Pre-Game Analysis
Morgan St brings a 3-0 record into UMBC, and the market still makes the Bears 6.5-point underdogs. That gap is the whole story. The Retrievers are priced at -6.5 and -277 on the moneyline, and the market gives UMBC a 71% chance with the margin removed. Morgan St gets 29%. The books have made their call. The data gives you two very different arguments.
Morgan St's case is simple and loud. The Bears are 3-0, they've won three straight, and they're scoring 90.3 points per game while allowing 59.0. They're shooting 44.8% from the field. They're also 1-0 on the moneyline and 1-0-0 against the spread, a 100% cover rate. The last meeting was a two-point game, 81-79 UMBC on Nov 11. Morgan St has done everything right so far.
UMBC's case is about the number, not the record. The Retrievers are 1-2, but they're on a one-game win streak and their last four games read L-L-W-W. They're scoring 75.0 and allowing 77.0. Their field goal percentage is 39.3%, which is the weak spot. The market is asking UMBC to win by nearly seven despite that profile. The home team is 0-0 at home, and Morgan St is 0-0 on the road, so neither side has a venue edge on paper.
The line hasn't moved. The spread opened at UMBC -6.5 and sits at -6.5. The total opened at 164 and sits at 164. Best prices: UMBC -275 on the moneyline at Bovada, Morgan St +235 at Everygame. On the spread, both sides are -110 at Bovada. On the total, Over 164 is -105 at Bovada and Under 164 is -110 at Everygame.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. The best number is there for whatever your read is.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 12, 1:05 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Morgan St Bears vs UMBC Retrievers: FAQ
Who is favored in Morgan St Bears vs UMBC Retrievers?+
UMBC Retrievers: -6.5 on the spread and -277 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 71%.
What are the best odds for Morgan St Bears vs UMBC Retrievers?+
When this analysis was written: UMBC Retrievers -275 at Bovada and Morgan St Bears +235 at Everygame on the moneyline; UMBC Retrievers -6.5 (-110) at Bovada and Morgan St Bears +6.5 (-110) at Bovada on the spread; Over -105 at Bovada and Under -110 at Everygame on the total of 164. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened UMBC Retrievers -6.5 and was -6.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 164 and was 164.
Does GODDS have a pick for Morgan St Bears vs UMBC Retrievers?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
Morgan St Bears 70, UMBC Retrievers 85.
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