Rutgers -24.5 vs NJIT, and the market sees a mismatch

Rutgers hosts NJIT Tuesday night as a -24.5 favorite, and the market isn't subtle about it. The moneyline sits at -18249 on the favorite, with the market probability, margin removed, at 95% Rutgers and 5% NJIT. The spread opened at -24 and has been bet up to -24.5, so the market's conviction is already on the board.

The case for Rutgers starts with scoring: 81.0 PPG through one game, against 54.0 allowed, with a 50% field goal rate. The Scarlet Knights are 1-0 and on a one-game win streak. The case against laying the points is simple: this is a big number, and the market has already moved it once.

The case for NJIT is that the Highlanders are 1-2 and coming off a win, and they've seen three games already while Rutgers has seen one. But the numbers are ugly: 53.7 PPG scored against 71.0 allowed, with a 33.97% field goal rate. The case against the Highlanders is that nothing in that profile says they can hang with a team scoring 81.

The number has moved on both markets: the spread from -24 to -24.5 toward Rutgers, and the total from 145.5 to 143 toward the under. Best prices: Rutgers -24.5 (-105) at Bovada, NJIT +24.5 (-115) at Bovada. Moneyline: Rutgers -10000 at Everygame, NJIT +2500 at Bovada. Total 143: Over -110 at Everygame, Under -105 at Bovada.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in its model, so there's no play here. Whatever your read is, the best number is on the board above.