Pirates 72, Aggies 67: the favorite wins but fails to cover
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: East Carolina Pirates -11.5 (moneyline -700)
- Market probability (margin removed): East Carolina Pirates 84%, North Carolina A&T Aggies 16%
- Line since opening: East Carolina Pirates -10.5 → -11.5 · Total 151.5 → 152
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- East Carolina Pirates -700 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- North Carolina A&T Aggies +505 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Spread
- East Carolina Pirates -11.5 (-110) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- North Carolina A&T Aggies +11.5 (-110) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Total 152
- Over -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Under -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Final: North Carolina A&T Aggies 67, East Carolina Pirates 72
Against the closing line: East Carolina Pirates won and did not cover -11 · Total 139, under 152
Game Recap
East Carolina Pirates 72, North Carolina A&T Aggies 67. The Pirates closed as -11 favorites with a moneyline of -724, and the market gave them an 84% chance to win. They got the win, but it was far from the comfortable margin the number demanded. The Aggies kept it within single digits, turning a game the market expected to be a rout into a nail-biter. Against the numbers: East Carolina won outright but did not cover -11, and the total of 139 went under 152. The Pirates offense, averaging 79.0 points per game, couldn't pull away, while NC A&T's 74.0 points allowed per game held firm enough to keep it close.
Pre-Game Analysis
East Carolina hosts North Carolina A&T Wednesday with the market firmly in the Pirates' corner. The spread sits at -11.5 and the moneyline at -700, and the market probability, margin removed, is East Carolina 84%, NC A&T 16%. That's a heavy number for a 1-1 team, and it's the number bettors have to solve.
The case for the Pirates starts with scoring: 79.0 points per game against 74.0 allowed. They've lost one straight and sit at 1-1, but the offense has been the more reliable unit, and the market is paying for it. The case for the Aggies is the other side of the ledger: 81.0 points per game against just 66.5 allowed, the better scoring margin of the two teams. NC A&T has also lost one straight and is 1-1, but its defense has kept opponents well below East Carolina's allowance. If the Aggies' scoring travels, the points are real.
Since opening, the spread moved from -10.5 to -11.5, toward East Carolina, and the total from 151.5 to 152, toward the over. The best moneyline price on the Pirates is -700 at Bovada; the best on the Aggies is +505 at BetOnline.ag. The best spread price on either side is -11.5 (-110) at Bovada for East Carolina and +11.5 (-110) at Bovada for NC A&T. On the total, Over 152 at -110 and Under 152 at -110 are both at Bovada.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. Whatever your read is, the best number is on the board.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 11, 12:49 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
North Carolina A&T Aggies vs East Carolina Pirates: FAQ
Who is favored in North Carolina A&T Aggies vs East Carolina Pirates?+
East Carolina Pirates: -11.5 on the spread and -700 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 84%.
What are the best odds for North Carolina A&T Aggies vs East Carolina Pirates?+
When this analysis was written: East Carolina Pirates -700 at Bovada and North Carolina A&T Aggies +505 at BetOnline.ag on the moneyline; East Carolina Pirates -11.5 (-110) at Bovada and North Carolina A&T Aggies +11.5 (-110) at Bovada on the spread; Over -110 at Bovada and Under -110 at Bovada on the total of 152. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened East Carolina Pirates -10.5 and was -11.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 151.5 and was 152.
Does GODDS have a pick for North Carolina A&T Aggies vs East Carolina Pirates?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
North Carolina A&T Aggies 67, East Carolina Pirates 72.
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