New Mexico -28.5 vs Northern Arizona, and the line keeps climbing
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: New Mexico Lobos -28.5
- Line since opening: New Mexico Lobos -24 → -28.5 · Total 153.5 → 158
Best prices when this analysis was written
Spread
- New Mexico Lobos -28.5 (-105) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks +28.5 (-110) at EverygameBet at Everygame →
Total 158
- Over -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Under -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
New Mexico hosts Northern Arizona Saturday with the Lobos priced as a -28.5 favorite at every book on the board. The market has no doubt about the favorite. It has questions about the number, and that's where this game gets interesting.
New Mexico's case is simple and loud. The Lobos are 1-0, scoring 100.0 points per game while allowing 60.0, and they're shooting 58.3% from the field. That's a team that can bury an opponent early and keep the pressure on. A 1-1 ATS record says the market hasn't fully caught up to how they're winning, and the line move agrees.
Northern Arizona's case rests on pace and pride. The Lumberjacks are 0-1, scoring 77.0 and allowing 89.0, but they're shooting 52.1% from the field themselves. That's a real offensive number. A team that shoots it that well can trade baskets and shorten a game, which is exactly what a 28.5-point underdog needs to stay inside the number. One loss doesn't define a season, and this is a chance to answer.
The market already moved. The spread opened at -24 and climbed to -28.5, so the money has sided with New Mexico. The total went from 153.5 to 158, pointing to an expectation of more scoring. Best prices: New Mexico -28.5 (-105) at Bovada, Northern Arizona +28.5 (-110) at Everygame. On the total of 158, the over is -110 at Bovada and the under is -110 at Bovada.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches the 70% threshold in the model. Whatever your read is, shop the best number for it.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 7, 4:45 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs New Mexico Lobos: FAQ
Who is favored in Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs New Mexico Lobos?+
New Mexico Lobos: -28.5 on the spread when this analysis was written.
What are the best odds for Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs New Mexico Lobos?+
When this analysis was written: New Mexico Lobos -28.5 (-105) at Bovada and Northern Arizona Lumberjacks +28.5 (-110) at Everygame on the spread; Over -110 at Bovada and Under -110 at Bovada on the total of 158. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened New Mexico Lobos -24 and was -28.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 153.5 and was 158.
Does GODDS have a pick for Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs New Mexico Lobos?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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