Mississippi St -21.5 vs Northwestern St. The market's number is set.

Mississippi St opened its season with a win and now gets Northwestern St at home. The market has the Bulldogs at -21.5 with a moneyline of -10000, and the market probability, margin removed, sits at 94% for Mississippi St and 6% for Northwestern St. That's the price of admission. The question is whether the number is right.

Mississippi St put up 106 points in its first game while allowing 88, and shot 58.3% from the field. That's a team with a clear scoring punch and a defense that hasn't been tested. The Bulldogs are on a 1-game win streak and have yet to play at home, so this is their first real look in front of their own crowd.

Northwestern St is 0-1 after a loss, scoring 65 and allowing 87. The Demons shot just 37.3% from the field in that game. Their best argument is simple: they've already faced a tough test, and a big underdog with nothing to lose can hang around if the favorite gets sloppy. The data doesn't show much else to hang a hat on.

The spread hasn't moved since opening at -21.5, but the total has dropped from 154 to 151.5, a clear move toward the under. For the best prices, Bovada has Mississippi St -21.5 at -105 and Northwestern St +21.5 at -115, while BetOnline.ag has the Demons +21.5 at -110. On the total, Bovada has both sides at -110 for 151.5, and BetOnline.ag has 151 with the over at -115 and under at -105. The moneyline is -10000 at Bovada and Everygame for the Bulldogs, and +1600 at Bovada for the Demons.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no play. If you have a read, the best number is out there.