BYU -3.5 against Ohio State, and the market keeps pushing.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: BYU Cougars -3.5 (moneyline -160)
- Market probability (margin removed): BYU Cougars 59%, Ohio State Buckeyes 41%
- Line since opening: BYU Cougars -2.5 → -3.5 · Total 161.5 → 160.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- BYU Cougars -160 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Ohio State Buckeyes +140 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Spread
- BYU Cougars -3.5 (-105) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Ohio State Buckeyes +3.5 (-110) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Total 160.5
- Over -110 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Under -110 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
BYU opens as a -3.5 favorite over Ohio State, with the moneyline sitting at -160 and the market probability at 59% for the Cougars and 41% for the Buckeyes. This is a priced game, not a lopsided one. The number moved off the open, and the market has made its call on the favorite. Your job is to decide if that call is right.
The case for BYU starts with the line itself. The spread opened at -2.5 and is now -3.5. The moneyline went from -145 to -160. That's sharp money on the home side, and the market moved with it. BYU also owns a 47.7% field goal percentage in the data, a number that keeps the offense efficient enough to cover a short number at home. The Cougars are 0-1 against the spread in their own database, but that's a small sample and the market isn't treating it as a warning.
The case for Ohio State is the other side of the same coin. The Buckeyes shot 49.3% from the field in the data, a higher mark than BYU's, and they come in off a win. Getting +3.5 with a team that shoots better from the floor is the argument for the road side. The market probability gives them 41%, which means the number isn't out of reach. If the shooting gap holds, the Buckeyes have a path to cover.
The number has moved toward BYU and toward the under. The spread went from -2.5 to -3.5, the total from 161.5 to 160.5. Best prices: BYU moneyline -160 at Bovada, Ohio State +140 at BetOnline.ag. Spread: BYU -3.5 (-105) at Bovada, Ohio State +3.5 (-110) at BetOnline.ag. Total 160.5: over -110 at BetOnline.ag, under -110 at BetOnline.ag.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best numbers are above.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 2, 7:53 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs BYU Cougars: FAQ
Who is favored in Ohio State Buckeyes vs BYU Cougars?+
BYU Cougars: -3.5 on the spread and -160 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 59%.
What are the best odds for Ohio State Buckeyes vs BYU Cougars?+
When this analysis was written: BYU Cougars -160 at Bovada and Ohio State Buckeyes +140 at BetOnline.ag on the moneyline; BYU Cougars -3.5 (-105) at Bovada and Ohio State Buckeyes +3.5 (-110) at BetOnline.ag on the spread; Over -110 at BetOnline.ag and Under -110 at BetOnline.ag on the total of 160.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened BYU Cougars -2.5 and was -3.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 161.5 and was 160.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for Ohio State Buckeyes vs BYU Cougars?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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