Navy 81, Pennsylvania 76: the favorite never had a chance
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Pennsylvania Quakers -7.5 (moneyline -315)
- Market probability (margin removed): Navy Midshipmen 27%, Pennsylvania Quakers 73%
- Line since opening: Pennsylvania Quakers -7.5 → -7.5 · Total 147 → 147
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Navy Midshipmen +260 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Pennsylvania Quakers -310 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
Spread
- Navy Midshipmen +7.5 (-105) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Pennsylvania Quakers -7.5 (-110) at EverygameBet at Everygame →
Total 147
- Over -105 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Under -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Final: Pennsylvania Quakers 76, Navy Midshipmen 81
Against the closing line: Pennsylvania Quakers lost and did not cover -7.5 · Total 157, over 146.5
Game Recap
Pennsylvania Quakers 76, Navy Midshipmen 81. The Quakers closed as -7.5 favorites with a -315 moneyline, but Navy's defense made the difference. The Midshipmen held Penn to 76 points, well below what was needed to cover, and improved to 3-1 on the season. Navy's 2-game win streak now sits at 3, and they did it by forcing the Quakers into a hole they couldn't climb out of. Against the numbers, Pennsylvania lost outright and failed to cover -7.5, while the total of 157 sailed over 146.5. The market gave Navy just a 27% chance to win; the Midshipmen made that number look silly.
Pre-Game Analysis
Pennsylvania walks into Annapolis as a -7.5 favorite, and the market gives Navy a 27% chance of pulling the upset. The moneyline sits at -315 on the Quakers, +260 on the Midshipmen. That's the number bettors are working with on Wednesday night, and it hasn't moved since opening.
Navy's case starts with the only thing that's been consistent: winning. The Midshipmen are 2-1 and riding a 2-game win streak, scoring 69.0 PPG while allowing just 65.7. They've held opponents under 66 on average, and they're catching a Penn team that's giving up 88.5 PPG. A home dog with a defense that keeps games close and a favorite that leaks points is a real argument for the points.
Penn's case is the record and the cover rate. The Quakers are 1-1 but on a 1-game win streak and have been profitable against the number: 1-0 ATS, 1-0 on the moneyline, scoring 74.0 PPG. Their 35.7% FG is ugly, but they've won the games they were supposed to, and the market still prices them as a 73% favorite. The spread has stayed at -7.5 since opening, and the total hasn't moved off 147.
Best prices, market by market: moneyline, Navy +260 at Bovada and Penn -310 at Everygame. Spread, Navy +7.5 (-105) at Bovada and Penn -7.5 (-110) at Everygame. Total, Over 147 (-105) at BetOnline.ag and Under 147 (-110) at Bovada.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in its model, so there's nothing to endorse. If you have a read, the best number is waiting for it at the books above.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 11, 12:49 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Pennsylvania Quakers vs Navy Midshipmen: FAQ
Who is favored in Pennsylvania Quakers vs Navy Midshipmen?+
Pennsylvania Quakers: -7.5 on the spread and -315 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 73%.
What are the best odds for Pennsylvania Quakers vs Navy Midshipmen?+
When this analysis was written: Navy Midshipmen +260 at Bovada and Pennsylvania Quakers -310 at Everygame on the moneyline; Navy Midshipmen +7.5 (-105) at Bovada and Pennsylvania Quakers -7.5 (-110) at Everygame on the spread; Over -105 at BetOnline.ag and Under -110 at Bovada on the total of 147. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Pennsylvania Quakers -7.5 and was -7.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 147 and was 147.
Does GODDS have a pick for Pennsylvania Quakers vs Navy Midshipmen?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
Pennsylvania Quakers 76, Navy Midshipmen 81.
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