Saint Joseph's -3.5 against Penn, and the line keeps shrinking.

Saint Joseph's puts its 3-0 record on the line against a Pennsylvania team that beat the Hawks 83-74 last November, and the market has taken notice. The Hawks are favored at -3.5 with a -175 moneyline, but the market probability, margin removed, sits at just 61% for Saint Joseph's and 39% for Penn. That's a far cry from a lock, and the number has been moving all week.

The case for Saint Joseph's starts with a perfect record and a defense allowing 70.0 points per game. The Hawks are scoring 77.3 PPG, they've won three straight, and they're 2-0 on the moneyline this season. They've also cashed the over in both of their O/U decisions. The home side has the better record and the better scoring margin, and the market still makes them the favorite.

The case for Penn is built on pace and payback. The Quakers are scoring 74.7 PPG and already own a win over this Saint Joseph's team, that 83-74 result last November. Their 37.62% field goal percentage is essentially identical to the Hawks' 37.88%, so the shooting profiles don't separate these teams. Penn is 1-1 on the moneyline and 1-1 against the spread, and the line has moved toward them all week.

The spread opened at -5 and sits at -3.5, a full 1.5 points of movement toward Penn. The total dropped from 152.5 to 151. The best price on the Hawks' moneyline is -170 at Bovada, while Penn's best number is +155 at Everygame. On the spread, both sides are -110 at BetOnline.ag. For the total, the over is -110 at BetUS and the under is -105 at Bovada.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no play to make. If you have a read, the best numbers are on the board.