Arkansas -30 against Robert Morris. The market sees a mismatch.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Arkansas Razorbacks -30 (moneyline -100000)
- Market probability (margin removed): Arkansas Razorbacks 98%, Robert Morris Colonials 2%
- Line since opening: Arkansas Razorbacks -29.5 → -30 · Total 154.5 → 155.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Arkansas Razorbacks -100000 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Robert Morris Colonials +4500 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Spread
- Arkansas Razorbacks -30 (-105) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Robert Morris Colonials +30 (-110) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Total 155.5
- Over -105 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Under -110 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
Arkansas hosts Robert Morris on Wednesday night, and the market has already made its call. The Razorbacks are -30 at BetOnline.ag, with a moneyline of -100000 at Bovada. The market probability, margin removed, sits at 98% Arkansas, 2% Robert Morris. That's the price of a game that looks lopsided on paper, but the number still has to be right.
Arkansas brings a scoring punch of 89.0 PPG and shoots 50.4% from the field. That's the case for the favorite: a high-percentage offense that can pile up points quickly. But the Razorbacks are on a 1-game losing streak, sit at 1-1, and are 0-1 against the spread this season. They've allowed 76.0 PPG, so the defense hasn't been airtight.
Robert Morris is 0-2 and has struggled to score, putting up just 52.5 PPG while allowing 82.5. The Colonials shoot 33.0% from the field, which is the biggest obstacle to them staying within 30. Their best argument is that Arkansas hasn't covered a spread yet and is giving a massive number. A 30-point line requires a complete performance, and the Razorbacks haven't shown one.
The spread opened at -29.5 and moved to -30, a slight shift toward Arkansas. The total moved from 154.5 to 155.5, toward the over. For the best number on the favorite, BetOnline.ag has -30 (-105). On the underdog, Bovada offers +30 (-110). The total is 155.5 with the over at -105 on BetOnline.ag and the under at -110 on Everygame.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches the 70% threshold in the model. If you have a read, the best prices are there for the taking.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 11, 7:27 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Robert Morris Colonials vs Arkansas Razorbacks: FAQ
Who is favored in Robert Morris Colonials vs Arkansas Razorbacks?+
Arkansas Razorbacks: -30 on the spread and -100000 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 98%.
What are the best odds for Robert Morris Colonials vs Arkansas Razorbacks?+
When this analysis was written: Arkansas Razorbacks -100000 at Bovada and Robert Morris Colonials +4500 at Bovada on the moneyline; Arkansas Razorbacks -30 (-105) at BetOnline.ag and Robert Morris Colonials +30 (-110) at Bovada on the spread; Over -105 at BetOnline.ag and Under -110 at Everygame on the total of 155.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Arkansas Razorbacks -29.5 and was -30 when this analysis was written; the total opened 154.5 and was 155.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for Robert Morris Colonials vs Arkansas Razorbacks?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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