Nevada -1 against Saint Mary's, and the line keeps slipping.

Nevada hosts Saint Mary's on Sunday with a number that's been on the move all week, and the market can't decide who it likes. The Wolf Pack opened as high as -2, and that number has been chipped down to -1 at most books. Remove the margin and the market gives Nevada a 52% chance to win, with Saint Mary's at 48%. That's a coin flip dressed up as a home favorite.

The case for Nevada starts with a defense that's been stingy out of the gate. The Wolf Pack are 1-0 and allowing just 49.0 points per game, and they're shooting a respectable 47.1% from the field. They've won their last game and sit on a 1-game win streak. If the defense travels, the home crowd and a short line give them a real path.

The case for Saint Mary's is the offense. The Gaels are 2-0 and putting up 97.5 points per game on a scorching 57.9% from the field. They've covered the number in their only lined game, going 1-0 against the spread, and they're 1-0 on the moneyline. This is a team that's been blitzing opponents, and the market's move toward them reflects that.

The total has climbed from 143.5 to 146, and the best price on the over is -110 at Bovada, with the under also -110 at Bovada. On the moneyline, Nevada is -115 at Bovada and Saint Mary's is +105 at BetUS. The spread: Nevada -1 (-105) at Bovada, Saint Mary's +1 (-110) at Everygame. Shop those numbers; the difference between -1 and -1.5 matters in a game this tight.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no call to make. Whatever your read is, take the best price on the board.