North Texas -9 vs South Alabama, and the total keeps falling.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: North Texas Mean Green -9 (moneyline -450)
- Market probability (margin removed): North Texas Mean Green 79%, South Alabama Jaguars 21%
- Line since opening: North Texas Mean Green -9 → -9 · Total 140 → 133.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- North Texas Mean Green -450 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- South Alabama Jaguars +355 at BetUSBet at BetUS →
Spread
- North Texas Mean Green -9 (-110) at BetUSBet at BetUS →
- South Alabama Jaguars +9 (-105) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Total 133.5
- Over -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Under -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
North Texas hosts South Alabama as a -9 favorite with a -450 moneyline, and the market gives the Mean Green a 79% chance with the margin removed. That's the number to beat. The total has done the real moving, dropping from 140 to 133.5 since opening.
North Texas brings the stronger case on paper. The Mean Green score 90.0 PPG and allow 64.3, a scoring margin that dwarfs South Alabama's. They shoot 50.8% from the field and own the only head-to-head meeting, a 58-57 win last December. The knock: they're on a 1-game losing streak and sit 1-1 against the spread, so the market is paying for the profile, not recent form.
South Alabama's argument is simple. The Jaguars are 2-2, riding a 1-game win streak, and they've covered the only spread they faced, a 100% ATS mark. They score 77.0 PPG and allow 78.5, so they'll have to win a track meet or slow this one down. Their 48.7% shooting trails North Texas, and they're 0-1 on the moneyline. The case rests on the number being too high, not on the profile being better.
The spread hasn't budged from -9. The moneyline ticked from -420 to -450, sharp money on North Texas. The total fell 6.5 points toward the under. Best prices: North Texas -450 at BetOnline.ag, South Alabama +355 at BetUS. On the spread, North Texas -9 (-110) at BetUS, South Alabama +9 (-105) at BetOnline.ag. Total 133.5: over -110 and under -110, both at Bovada.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. Whatever your read, the best number is on the board above.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 14, 5:16 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green: FAQ
Who is favored in South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green?+
North Texas Mean Green: -9 on the spread and -450 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 79%.
What are the best odds for South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green?+
When this analysis was written: North Texas Mean Green -450 at BetOnline.ag and South Alabama Jaguars +355 at BetUS on the moneyline; North Texas Mean Green -9 (-110) at BetUS and South Alabama Jaguars +9 (-105) at BetOnline.ag on the spread; Over -110 at Bovada and Under -110 at Bovada on the total of 133.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened North Texas Mean Green -9 and was -9 when this analysis was written; the total opened 140 and was 133.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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