UCF -13.5 against South Alabama, and the line keeps sliding.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: UCF Knights -13.5 (moneyline -1248)
- Market probability (margin removed): UCF Knights 89%, South Alabama Jaguars 11%
- Line since opening: UCF Knights -17 → -13.5 · Total 151 → 151
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- UCF Knights -1200 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- South Alabama Jaguars +754 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Spread
- UCF Knights -13.5 (-108) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- South Alabama Jaguars +13.5 (-110) at EverygameBet at Everygame →
Total 151
- Over -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Under -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
UCF hosts South Alabama Tuesday as a -13.5 favorite, and the market is already fighting over what that number should be. The moneyline sits at -1248 for the Knights, with the market pricing UCF at 89% and South Alabama at 11% once the margin is stripped out. That's a lopsided board, but the movement tells a different story than the price does.
The case for UCF starts with scoring. The Knights are 2-0 on a two game win streak, putting up 91.5 points per game while shooting 49.2% from the field. That's an offense that can bury a mid major early, and a -13.5 spread asks them to do exactly that. If UCF plays to its pace, the number is well within reach before the final ten minutes.
The case for South Alabama is simpler: the Jaguars score too. They're 1-1 but riding a one game win streak, averaging 80.0 points per game on 48.0% shooting. They've already shown they can put the ball in the basket, and a 13.5 point cushion gives them room to trade buckets and still cover. The market has noticed, and the moneyline has moved hard.
That movement is the story. The spread opened at -17 and sits at -13.5, a full 3.5 points toward South Alabama. The moneyline went from -2000 to -1248, sharp money landing on the Jaguars. The total hasn't budged, parked at 151. Best prices: UCF -1200 at BetOnline.ag on the moneyline, South Alabama +754 also at BetOnline.ag. On the spread, UCF -13.5 (-108) at BetOnline.ag, South Alabama +13.5 (-110) at Everygame. Total 151: over -110 and under -110, both at Bovada.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. Whatever your read is, the best number for it is on the board above.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 10, 6:08 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
South Alabama Jaguars vs UCF Knights: FAQ
Who is favored in South Alabama Jaguars vs UCF Knights?+
UCF Knights: -13.5 on the spread and -1248 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 89%.
What are the best odds for South Alabama Jaguars vs UCF Knights?+
When this analysis was written: UCF Knights -1200 at BetOnline.ag and South Alabama Jaguars +754 at BetOnline.ag on the moneyline; UCF Knights -13.5 (-108) at BetOnline.ag and South Alabama Jaguars +13.5 (-110) at Everygame on the spread; Over -110 at Bovada and Under -110 at Bovada on the total of 151. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened UCF Knights -17 and was -13.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 151 and was 151.
Does GODDS have a pick for South Alabama Jaguars vs UCF Knights?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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