South Florida 80, Saint Joseph's 83: the favorite stumbles at Hagan
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: South Florida Bulls -7 (moneyline -300)
- Market probability (margin removed): Saint Joseph's Hawks 28%, South Florida Bulls 72%
- Line since opening: South Florida Bulls -7 → -7 · Total 151 → 150
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Saint Joseph's Hawks +250 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
- South Florida Bulls -300 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Spread
- Saint Joseph's Hawks +7 (-110) at EverygameBet at Everygame →
- South Florida Bulls -7 (-105) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Total 150
- Over -110 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
- Under -105 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Final: South Florida Bulls 80, Saint Joseph's Hawks 83
Against the closing line: South Florida Bulls lost and did not cover -6.5 · Total 163, over 152.5
Game Recap
South Florida 80, Saint Joseph's 83. The Bulls walked into Hagan Arena as a 7-point favorite with a -300 moneyline, and the market gave them a 72% chance to win. But the Hawks flipped the script. South Florida's offense, which averaged 89.0 points per game and shot 49.3% from the field, couldn't deliver when it mattered. Saint Joseph's, sitting at 28% pre-game, found a way to pull the upset. The Bulls' defense, a question mark all along, couldn't get the stops it needed down the stretch. Against the numbers: the favorite lost outright and failed to cover -6.5, while the total of 163 sailed over 152.5. The market got this one wrong, and the Hawks made sure of it.
Pre-Game Analysis
South Florida walks into Hagan Arena as a 7-point favorite with a -300 moneyline, and the market gives the Bulls a 72% chance to win with the margin removed. Saint Joseph's sits at 28%. That gap is the whole story here, and it's wide enough that bettors on either side have a real case to build.
The Bulls bring the offense. South Florida scores 89.0 points per game and shoots 49.3% from the field, the kind of efficiency that travels. The catch is on the other end, where they allow 76.5 per game and arrive on a 1-game losing streak after a W-L start. The case for the road favorite is simple: that shooting number is the best in this matchup, and a team that scores at that rate doesn't need many stops.
Saint Joseph's brings the defense and the form. The Hawks allow 65.0 points per game, nearly 12 fewer than South Florida gives up, and they're 2-0 on a 2-game win streak. The catch is the offense, where 39.5% shooting is a real drag. The case for the home dog is that this game slows down, the Hawks defend their building, and a +7 cushion covers a lot of ugly shooting nights.
The line has been steady at South Florida -7, but the moneyline moved from +265 to +250 on Saint Joseph's, sharp money on the home side. The total ticked from 151 to 150, toward the under. Best prices: Hawks +250 at Everygame, Bulls -300 at BetOnline.ag. On the spread, Hawks +7 (-110) at Everygame and Bulls -7 (-105) at BetOnline.ag. Total 150: Over -110 at Everygame, Under -105 at BetOnline.ag.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. Whatever your read is, the best number is waiting for it.
BetAnything
35% Sports Free Play up to $105
Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 11, 12:49 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
South Florida Bulls vs Saint Joseph's Hawks: FAQ
Who is favored in South Florida Bulls vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?+
South Florida Bulls: -7 on the spread and -300 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 72%.
What are the best odds for South Florida Bulls vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?+
When this analysis was written: Saint Joseph's Hawks +250 at Everygame and South Florida Bulls -300 at BetOnline.ag on the moneyline; Saint Joseph's Hawks +7 (-110) at Everygame and South Florida Bulls -7 (-105) at BetOnline.ag on the spread; Over -110 at Everygame and Under -105 at BetOnline.ag on the total of 150. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened South Florida Bulls -7 and was -7 when this analysis was written; the total opened 151 and was 150.
Does GODDS have a pick for South Florida Bulls vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
South Florida Bulls 80, Saint Joseph's Hawks 83.
BetAnything
35% Sports Free Play up to $105
More NCAAB Picks
Recent Results
UConn Huskies @ Michigan Wolverines
Michigan Wolverines spread -7
Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Auburn Tigers
Tulsa Golden Hurricane spread +6
Oklahoma Sooners @ West Virginia Mountaineers
Oklahoma Sooners spread -3.5
Michigan Wolverines @ Arizona Wildcats
Michigan Wolverines spread -1.5
Illinois Fighting Illini @ UConn Huskies
UConn Huskies spread +2
West Virginia Mountaineers @ Creighton Bluejays
Creighton Bluejays spread -1
Oklahoma Sooners @ Baylor Bears
Baylor Bears spread +1
Illinois St Redbirds @ Auburn Tigers
Illinois St Redbirds spread +7
Stanford Cardinal @ West Virginia Mountaineers
Stanford Cardinal spread -1
New Mexico Lobos @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane
New Mexico Lobos spread -3.5