Drake -14 vs Southern, and the market's number is still climbing.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Drake Bulldogs -14 (moneyline -1225)
- Market probability (margin removed): Drake Bulldogs 88%, Southern Jaguars 12%
- Line since opening: Drake Bulldogs -13.5 → -14 · Total 151 → 151
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Drake Bulldogs -1200 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Southern Jaguars +700 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Spread
- Drake Bulldogs -14 (-108) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Southern Jaguars +14 (-105) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Total 151
- Over -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Under -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Drake hosts Southern on Sunday with the market pricing the Bulldogs as a -14 favorite and a -1225 moneyline. The market probability, margin removed, sits at 88% Drake, 12% Southern. That's the number that frames everything: this game is priced as a mismatch, and the only question for bettors is whether the mismatch is real or already baked in.
The case for Drake is straightforward. The Bulldogs are 1-0 and scoring 101.0 points per game while allowing 48.0. Their 54.2% field goal shooting is the kind of number that turns a double-digit spread into a blowout if it holds. Drake has won its last game and hasn't lost yet this season.
The case for Southern is that the Jaguars have been tested. They're 0-2 and scoring 63.0 while allowing 95.5, but they've already seen two games and an 0-1 ATS record that tells you the market has been ahead of them. Southern's 39.5% field goal shooting is the problem, but a team that's already been punched in the mouth twice can be a different team in game three.
The line has moved since opening. The spread went from -13.5 to -14, and the moneyline went from -1171 to -1225. That's sharp money on Drake. The total has stayed at 151. Best prices: Drake moneyline at -1200 at Bovada, Southern moneyline at +700 at Bovada, Drake spread at -14 (-108) at BetOnline.ag, Southern spread at +14 (-105) at Bovada, and the total at Over -110 or Under -110 at Bovada.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in its model. Whatever your read is, the best number is on the board.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 8, 2:26 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Southern Jaguars vs Drake Bulldogs: FAQ
Who is favored in Southern Jaguars vs Drake Bulldogs?+
Drake Bulldogs: -14 on the spread and -1225 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 88%.
What are the best odds for Southern Jaguars vs Drake Bulldogs?+
When this analysis was written: Drake Bulldogs -1200 at Bovada and Southern Jaguars +700 at Bovada on the moneyline; Drake Bulldogs -14 (-108) at BetOnline.ag and Southern Jaguars +14 (-105) at Bovada on the spread; Over -110 at Bovada and Under -110 at Bovada on the total of 151. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Drake Bulldogs -13.5 and was -14 when this analysis was written; the total opened 151 and was 151.
Does GODDS have a pick for Southern Jaguars vs Drake Bulldogs?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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