St. Thomas (MN) Tommies 77, Army Knights 79: the favorite falls outright

St. Thomas (MN) walks into West Point as a -6 favorite and a -270 moneyline price, and the market has made up its mind. The margin-removed probability reads 70% Tommies, 30% Army Knights. That's the number to argue with.

Army's case is built on the defensive end. The Knights give up 62.7 points per game while scoring 74.3, a scoring profile that keeps games tight and drags opponents into a half-court grind. They're 1-2 on the year and have yet to play at home, so this is a fresh building and a fresh number for a team that has made a habit of staying close. If Army controls tempo, the six points get heavy.

St. Thomas brings the offense. The Tommies score 83.8 per game, the higher-powered side in this matchup by a wide margin, and they already beat Army 83-76 on Nov 8 in the only meeting between these programs. That's the strongest single argument on the board: the Tommies have seen Army, scored on Army, and won. The counterweight is a defense allowing 78.0, which is why the total sits where it does.

The number hasn't budged. Spread stayed -6 from open, total stayed 146.5. Best prices: Army +225 at Bovada, St. Thomas -265 at Everygame. Spread both ways at -110 at Bovada, with Everygame hanging +6.5 on Army. Total over -110 at Bovada, under -105 at Everygame, and BetOnline.ag lists 147 if you want the extra half point on the over.

GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's nothing to hand you. Whatever your read is, take the best number for it.