Tulane 63, Akron 65: the favorite survives but never covers
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Akron Zips -11.5 (moneyline -775)
- Market probability (margin removed): Akron Zips 85%, Tulane Green Wave 15%
- Line since opening: Akron Zips -12.5 → -11.5 · Total 155 → 156
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Akron Zips -750 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Tulane Green Wave +600 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
Spread
- Akron Zips -11.5 (-110) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Tulane Green Wave +11.5 (-105) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Total 156
- Over -110 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Under -110 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Final: Tulane Green Wave 63, Akron Zips 65
Against the closing line: Akron Zips won and did not cover -11.5 · Total 128, under 156
Game Recap
Tulane Green Wave 63, Akron Zips 65. The Zips won outright but never came close to covering the -11.5 they closed at, and the total of 128 sailed under the 156. Akron's offense, which came in averaging 93.5 points per game, stalled against a Tulane defense that refused to break. The Green Wave kept it close all night and nearly stole it outright, turning a game the market priced as an 85% Akron win into a two-point nail-biter. Against the numbers, the favorite won but failed to cover -11.5, and the total went under 156. That's the kind of night that makes you question every inflated line.
Pre-Game Analysis
Akron hosts Tulane as a big favorite, and the market has already blinked. The Zips are -11.5 after opening at -12.5, with a moneyline of -775 that implies an 85% win probability once the margin is removed. That's the number to beat, and bettors on both sides have a real case.
Akron's argument is simple: the Zips are 2-0, scoring 93.5 points per game while allowing just 62.5, and they're shooting 52% from the field. They've won four straight going back to last season, including an 88-71 win over Tulane in December. That's a team that scores efficiently and defends, and it's why the market made them a double-digit favorite in the first place.
Tulane's case is less about the record and more about the price. The Green Wave are 2-1, averaging 87.3 points and shooting 46.2%, and they've already seen a line move in their favor. The spread has dropped a full point from -12.5 to -11.5, and the moneyline has moved from -800 to -775, which tells you sharp money is showing up on the underdog. Tulane's 0-1 ATS record and 0-1 moneyline record this season mean the market has been ahead of them, but the number is now cheaper than it was at open.
The total has ticked up from 155 to 156, and the best prices are spread across the board. For the moneyline, Akron -750 at Bovada is the shortest price on the favorite, while Tulane +600 at Everygame is the longest on the dog. On the spread, Akron -11.5 (-110) at BetOnline.ag and Tulane +11.5 (-105) at Bovada are the numbers to shop. The total of 156 is -110 on both sides at BetOnline.ag.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model, so the call is yours. If you're playing it, take the best number on your side and let the market do the rest.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 14, 11:29 AM ET. Lines may have moved.
Tulane Green Wave vs Akron Zips: FAQ
Who is favored in Tulane Green Wave vs Akron Zips?+
Akron Zips: -11.5 on the spread and -775 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 85%.
What are the best odds for Tulane Green Wave vs Akron Zips?+
When this analysis was written: Akron Zips -750 at Bovada and Tulane Green Wave +600 at Everygame on the moneyline; Akron Zips -11.5 (-110) at BetOnline.ag and Tulane Green Wave +11.5 (-105) at Bovada on the spread; Over -110 at BetOnline.ag and Under -110 at BetOnline.ag on the total of 156. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Akron Zips -12.5 and was -11.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 155 and was 156.
Does GODDS have a pick for Tulane Green Wave vs Akron Zips?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
Tulane Green Wave 63, Akron Zips 65.
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