Wright State -1 at Toledo, and the market can't split them

Wright State and Toledo meet Tuesday with the market calling it a coin flip. The Raiders are the favorite at -1 and -115 on the moneyline, but the margin-removed probability sits at Toledo 49%, Wright State 51%. That's a game priced as a toss-up, and the number has been moving all day.

Wright State's case is pure offense. The Raiders are 2-0, averaging 99.5 points per game while allowing just 71.0, and they're shooting 58.2% from the field. They've covered in their only lined game and won all five of their last five. This is a team that's been blowing the doors off opponents, and the market still made them a small favorite on the road.

Toledo's case is situational. The Rockets are 1-2 but riding a one-game win streak, and they beat Wright State 81-71 in the most recent meeting. Their shooting has been ugly at 39.3% from the field, but they're at home, and the moneyline has flipped from +105 to -105, which tells you sharp money is backing the home side. The spread moved from Wright State -2 to -1 for the same reason.

The total has dropped from 159 to 157, and the best price on the under is -110 at Bovada. On the spread, Toledo +1 (-110) is available at Bovada, and Wright State -1 (-110) is also at Bovada. If you want the extra half point, Everygame has Toledo +1.5 (-115) and Wright State -1.5 (-105). On the moneyline, Bovada lists Toledo -105 and Wright State -115.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches the 70% threshold in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting for you at Bovada.