Buffalo -2.5 at Ball State, and the line keeps climbing.

Buffalo walks into Muncie as a 6-3 team riding a four-game win streak, and the market has taken notice. The Bulls are priced at -2.5 with a moneyline of -135, giving them a 55% win probability after the margin is removed. Ball State sits at 3-6, 2-1 at home, and the Cardinals are getting +2.5 on their own field. This is a Wednesday night game that matters to bettors because the number has moved and both sides have a real case.

Start with Buffalo. The Bulls are 6-3, 2-2 on the road, and they've won four straight. They allow 26.0 points per game while scoring 23.9, and that four-game run is the kind of form that gets a road team favored. The market has already pushed this line from -1.5 to -2.5, so the money has been on the Bulls. Their ATS record is 0-1, but that's a small sample. The case is simple: a winning team with a streak against a losing team.

Now Ball State. The Cardinals are 3-6 but 2-1 at home, and they score 22.9 points per game while allowing 34.8. That's not pretty, but home field matters in the MAC. They're 1-1 against the spread and 2-0 on the total. The Cardinals have lost one straight and are 3-6, but they've shown they can win at home. The case for Ball State is that the line has moved to +2.5, and they're getting points at home against a team that hasn't covered a spread this season.

The number has moved from Buffalo -1.5 to -2.5, and the total has dropped from 51.5 to 51. The best price on Ball State's moneyline is +120 at Bovada, while Buffalo's moneyline is -135 at BetAnything. On the spread, Ball State +2.5 is -103 at Bovada, and Buffalo -2.5 is -110 at BetAnything. For the total, the over 51 is -107 at BetOnline.ag, and the under is -105 at Everygame.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in its model. If you have a read, the best numbers are above.